INTERNATIONAL lenders have sounded the alarm about Pakistan’s growing climate fragility. At the closing plenary of the Sustainable Development Conference, the World Bank and IMF warned that unchecked population growth, environmental degradation and depleting natural resources are pushing Pakistan towards a perilous tipping point. World Bank country director Dr Bolormaa Amgabazar noted that Pakistan’s exposure to climate shocks and pollution has reached “alarmingly high” levels. The bank’s Climate and Country Development Report projects a staggering 20-30pc decline in GDP by 2050 if current trends continue. That projection is not a far-off worry; its effects are already being felt. Repeated floods and droughts are eroding food security, livelihoods, and public health. Such economic pressures could deepen inequality and trigger social unrest, especially in already fragile regions.

The IMF’s country representative, Mahir Binici, linked climate resilience directly to reform, saying Pakistan’s $1.4bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility will help integrate climate considerations into fiscal planning. Future development spending, he added, will undergo climate screening — a welcome shift towards accountability in infrastructure decisions. Yet, while such conditionalities may strengthen governance, they also underline a double burden: Pakistan must reform and adapt simultaneously, even as international support remains painfully slow. Only recently, this paper highlighted how the Loss and Damage Fund — meant to provide rapid relief to vulnerable countries — has yet to disburse a single dollar. That fund, alongside the promised $20bn Country Partnership Framework from the World Bank, could anchor long-term adaptation if realised promptly. Unless these pledges translate into predictable, multi-year financing, the reform agenda will stand on shaky ground. What once seemed a looming threat has become Pakistan’s everyday reality. The smog-filled skies, water scarcity and crippling floods that define Pakistan’s seasons are symptoms of a deepening crisis that cuts across health, agriculture and energy. The government must integrate climate resilience into every tier of planning — from PSDP priorities to urban regulation — and global partners must match rhetoric with resources. Provinces too must align local development plans with climate goals to ensure results on the ground. Above all, climate policies must outlast political cycles. Only sustained commitment can protect the vulnerable and secure our economic, social, and environmental future for generations ahead. We cannot afford to treat climate warnings as background noise any longer.

Published in Dawn, November 10th, 2025