ISLAMABAD: While security forces put militants on the back foot in September, the first three quarters of 2025 saw nearly as much violence as witnessed in all of 2024. If this trend continues, the current year may turn out to be one of the deadliest in decades.

This is the crux of two reports, issued by Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) and the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), about militant violence in the country over the past month.

According to PICSS, militant violence dropped significantly in Sept 2025, with both the number of attacks and militant capacity showing sharp declines compared to the record levels seen in Aug. The PICSS Militancy Database recorded 69 militant attacks in Sept — a 52 per cent reduction from August’s 143. These attacks resulted in 135 deaths and 173 injuries, whilst militants abducted at least 27 people.

The fatalities included 61 security personnel, 20 militants, and 54 civilians. Amongst the injured were 74 security personnel and 99 civilians. Compared with August, the number of martyred security personnel declined by 16pc, militant fatalities by 66pc, and civilian deaths by 17pc, reflecting a notable decrease in lethality.

If current trends continue, think tanks warn 2025 may be the ‘deadliest year’ in decade in terms of militant violence

KP remained the most affected province, but also witnessed intensified counterterrorism actions. The province reported 45 attacks that killed 54 people and injured 49. In mainland KP, 25 attacks caused 33 deaths — 20 security personnel, nine militants, and four civilians — whilst 42 people were injured. Militants kidnapped nine individuals, while security forces carried out 22 operations, killing 88 militants, though five personnel lost their lives and five militants were arrested.

In the tribal districts (erstwhile Fata), 20 militant attacks claimed 21 lives — six security personnel, three militants, and 12 civilians — and injured seven. Militants also abducted four people, while security forces conducted 18 operations in these districts, killing 83 militants. However, 24 civilians also lost their lives during these actions.

In Balochistan, 21 attacks claimed 79 lives — 33 security personnel, eight militants, and 38 civilians — and injured 122 others, including 37 security personnel and 85 civilians. Militants abducted 14 people. Security forces responded with seven major operations, killing 26 militants and arresting 10. Sindh experienced three attacks that killed two security personnel and injured two civilians.

According to CRSS’s report, Pakistan witnessed an over 46pc surge in overall violence in its security landscape for the third quarter of 2025, with at least 901 fatalities and 599 injuries — amongst civilians, security personnel, and outlaws — resulting from 329 incidents of violence.

“In just three quarters, 2025 has proven nearly as deadly as all of 2024, with 2,414 fatalities recorded compared to the entire tally of 2024 (2,546). With an entire quarter still remaining, this indicates that 2025 is on course to surpass last year’s toll. If the current trend continues, 2025 could mark one of the deadliest years in a decade,” the report stated.

Published in Dawn, October 2nd, 2025