Fragile cryosphere
IN contrast to last year’s catastrophic floods, this year’s monsoon flows drained through the plains of Pakistan without wreaking a major disaster. Nonetheless, the highlands of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral did not remain unaffected.
Not too far away, Nepal experienced a horrific disaster in August. The Himalayan nation endured one of its worst catastrophes when a huge mass of glacial ice and rock collapsed down a slope in the Himalayas near the Langtang region. Within half an hour, it caused an unprecedented surge — as high as nine metres — in the Bhote Koshi/Trishuli river system. Over 1,400 people died. Thousands more went missing. A month later, a massive section of the mountainside collapsed into the swollen Kali Gandaki River after days of heavy rain, sending enormous quantities of soil, rock and debris into the water. This wave of floods and landslides caused at least two dozen deaths.
Pakistan, China, India, Nepal, and Bhutan lie along the axis of disaster — the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) mountain system, also referred to as the ‘Third Pole’ because of its massive concentration of ice and glaciers. These water towers of Asia feed 10 major river systems and support the livelihoods of over two billion people in the region. Ironically, these mountains also spawn hydro-climatic disasters in the region. This explains the vulnerability of Pakistan’s highlands, as the Indus and other rivers flowing into the country draw water from these majestic mountains. The Nepal tragedy should be viewed as an early warning for Pakistan, especially for areas located in the highly fragile Hindu Kush, Karakoram and western Himalayan region. The phenomenon bears a stark resemblance to the relatively smaller-scale flash floods that occur almost yearly in the mountains of GB and KP.
In its August 2026 update, the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission warned that it had identified 131 potentially dangerous glacial lakes, most of them in GB and KP. The number of unfrozen PDGLs rose from 40 to 105 within a month due to higher temperatures. These findings reinforce the ominous report of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Its assessment of the HKH region identified 25,614 glacial lakes across major river basins. The report also highlighted the risks linked to moraine-dammed lakes near retreating glaciers.
The Nepal tragedy should be seen as a warning for Pakistan.
These manifestations cannot be solely attributed to climate change, as human intervention is aggravating the impact of natural processes. The cryosphere’s health depends on several factors, including forests, vegetation, and soil stability. As forests vanish, hilly slopes are exposed and the runoff from rainwater and glacial melt increases. Flash floods become more violent and tend to carry larger amounts of debris.
A study supported by the ICIMOD revealed that approximately 9,288 acres of forest were lost in Chitral between 1992 and 2009. The annual rate of deforestation accelerated from 0.14 per cent in 1992-2000 to 0.54pc in 2000-2009. Deforestation is an equally alarming trend in GB, where the forest cover has declined to 615,798 acres, comprising only 3.57pc of the total area.
Population growth compounds environmental pressures. GB’s population was listed at around 881,000 in the 1998 census. By 2023, it had increased to some 1.5 million people. Similarly, Chitral recorded a population of about 516,000 in 2023. Demographic pressure amid weak land regulation has led to unregulated settlements in the dry beds of flood nullahs. A growing population increases the demand for land, which is scarce on mountain terraces and in narrow valleys. Dry nullahs are often mistaken for wasteland and used to build houses, which eventually collapse under the wrath of unforeseen gushing floods.
In July 2026, Suparco highlighted the serious challenge of relentless settlement expansion along a natural glacial lake-fed stream near Gilgit city. Satellite imagery comparing construction in 2023 to that of a decade earlier indicated the rapid expansion of settlements along this natural stream. Suparco is alarmed that the narrowed channels may not safely carry high flows.
The Nepal tragedy needs careful analysis to understand the parallels with the vulnerability of our cryosphere. Disaster managers should treat the catastrophe as an early warning. Residential and commercial development along mountain riverbanks, as well as deforestation in the watershed, should be strictly prohibited to avert human tragedy.
The writer is a senior adviser on water governance at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
Published in Dawn, October 1st, 2026
