Poles were voting on Sunday in a presidential election that will decide whether Warsaw follows the pro-European path set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, or shifts in the direction of nationalist admirers of US President Donald Trump.

Trump’s return to power has energised eurosceptics across Europe, and Sunday’s ballot will be the biggest test of Tusk’s pro-European vision since he came to power in 2023, ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The election pits Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, from Tusk’s Civic Coalition, against conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS.

Trzaskowski has been cast as the frontrunner, likely to face Nawrocki in a run-off, due on June 1, if no candidate wins over 50 per cent. Voting ends on Sunday at 9pm (12am Pakistan Standard Time), with exit polls expected soon afterwards and results trickling in overnight and on Monday.

Also competing are far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the Left.

State news agency PAP reported that Nawrocki encouraged all Poles to take part in the election after voting in Gdansk, saying it was important because “we are shaping our future”.

Trzaskowski said that “every election is a celebration of democracy” after voting in Warsaw. The electoral commission said voting was proceeding calmly.

Czeslaw Wegorek, a 64-year-old courier who was voting in the northern port city of Gdansk, said he wanted someone focused on the future of the population, “not more quarrels”.

Warsaw resident Barbara Zurawska said that for her, housing for young people was a key issue.

“It’s really hard for young people now. They live with their parents for a very long time, and it’s hard to take out loans and repay them,” she said.

Europe under pressure

The Polish first-round vote takes place on the same day as a second-round presidential run-off in Romania, where George Simion, a nationalist who campaigns to “Make Romania Great Again”, faces centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.

A victory for two eurosceptic candidates would send shockwaves through the European Union as the bloc grapples with the twin challenges of Russia’s invasion of Poland’s eastern neighbour Ukraine and Trump’s tariffs.

The Polish president has limited executive powers but can veto legislation. That has allowed outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, to stymie efforts by Tusk to undo judicial changes implemented under PiS, which Tusk says hamper democracy.

Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s role as a major player at the heart of European policymaking and work with the government to roll back PiS’s judicial changes.

Nawrocki’s campaign was rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he deceived an elderly man into selling him a flat in return for a promise of care he did not provide. But Trump showed support by meeting Nawrocki in the White House.

Nawrocki casts the election as a chance to stop Tusk from achieving unchecked power and push back against liberal values represented by Trzaskowski, who as Warsaw mayor patronised LGBT marches and took down Christian crosses from public buildings.

Unlike some other eurosceptics in central Europe, Nawrocki supports military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia. However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbour.

He has said Polish citizens should get priority in public services and criticised Kyiv’s attitude to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War Two.