PAKISTAN faces two types of drought: one caused by dry weather or lower-than-normal rainfall, and the other resulting from lower water supply in streams, reservoirs and groundwater levels, induced by months of no or insufficient rains. With climate change affecting the availability of water across the country in more ways than one, droughts, especially related to dry weather and lower-than-normal rainfall, are projected by a 2022 World Bank study to increase in the coming years. With rainfall below 40pc of the normal amount since September, we are facing a drought across most parts of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan this year as well. Without significant rainfall, drought, or dry and warmer weather conditions, is projected to exacerbate over the next few months. That is not all. Glaciers in the northern parts of the country have also been shrinking for the last many years due to below-normal snowfall and rising temperatures, with a forecast of further reduction in future flows in the Indus and its tributaries. The winter temperature this year is recorded to be above normal in most parts of the country.

Given the huge impact of global warming on weather patterns and water resources, aggravated drought conditions in the country do not come as a surprise. What boggles the mind more is the obliviousness of the country’s water sector planners to what is happening around them. The disclosure that Irsa, the nation’s water regulator, had approved water availability for the planned Cholistan canal a year ago, without taking into consideration decreasing water flows in the river system and the increasing number of dry days and drought conditions indicate the quality of our future water planning. Repeated disturbing climate events demand that such decisions be based on scientific studies and extensive data. The justification that we would have ample floodwaters from the Indian-controlled Sutlej river to feed the new canal is flawed to say the least. We do not see floods in Sutlej or any other river every year. Does Punjab have extra water to feed this canal in the years without floods? With water availability in the Indus system in decline, farmers from Punjab, too, are facing shortages, especially in the drought years. Therefore, our policymakers must rethink the new canal project in view of the increasing water distress in the river system.

Published in Dawn, February 24th, 2025