PARIS: The fall of Russian ally Bashar Al Assad in Syria has disrupted the Kremlin’s strategy not only for the Mediterranean but also for Africa, pushing it to focus on Libya as a potential foothold, experts say.

Russia runs a military port and an air base on the Syrian coast, designed to facilitate its operations in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel, Sudan, and the Central African Republic.

However, this model is in jeopardy with the abrupt departure of the Syrian ruler.

Although Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al Sharaa, has called Russia an “important country”, saying “we do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish”, the reshuffling of cards in Syria is pushing Russia to seek a strategic retreat towards Libya.

In Libya, Russian supporters already support Khalifa Haftar, a field marshal controlling the east of the country, against the Tripoli-based “government of national unity” (GNU), which has UN recognition and is supported by Turkiye.

“The goal is notably to preserve the ongoing Russian missions in Africa,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the RUSI think tank in the UK.

“It’s a self-preservation reflex” for Russia which is anxious “to mitigate the deterioration of its position in Syria”, he said.

In May, Swiss investigative consortium “All Eyes On Wagner” identified Russian activities at around 10 Libyan sites, including the port of Tobruk, where military equipment was delivered in February and April of last year.

There were around 800 Russian troops present in February and 1,800 in May.

On Dec 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defence systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries.

‘Notable volume’

Since Assad’s fall on Dec 8, “a notable volume of Russian military resources has been shipped to Libya from Belarus and Russia”, said Harchaoui, adding there had been troop transfers as well.

Ukrainian intelligence claimed on Jan 3 that Moscow planned “to use cargo ships to transport military equipment and weapons” to Libya.

`Disrupt western interests’

According to Badi, “Assad offered Moscow a foothold against Nato’s eastern flank and a stage to test military capabilities”.

Haftar, he said, presents a similar opportunity, “a means to disrupt western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa”.

The Tripoli government and Italy, Libya’s former colonial master, have expressed concern over Russian movements, closely observed by the European Union and Nato.

Several sources say the United States has tried to persuade Haftar to deny the Russians a permanent installation at the port of Tobruk that they have coveted since 2023.

It seems already clear the Kremlin will struggle to find the same level of ease in Libya that it had during Assad’s reign.

“Syria was convenient,” said Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based head of the Sahel programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

“It was this black box with no Western diplomats, no journalists. They could basically do what they wanted,” he said.

Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2025