LEBANON was rocked by a shocking and sophisticated attack on Tuesday in which hundreds of pagers exploded, causing at least nine fatalities and over 2,700 injuries. The main target of the attack appears to be Hezbollah; both the pro-Iran armed group and the Lebanese state have pointed the finger at Israel. Hezbollah fighters are among the dead, while the Iranian ambassador in Lebanon is reportedly injured. With more explosions reported on Wednesday, it is clear that Israel is looking to up the ante and lure Hezbollah into a larger confrontation, even though both sides say they are not interested in a full-blown war. The Lebanese group and Tel Aviv have been locked in a bloody battle of attrition ever since the Oct 7 Hamas attacks targeting Israel. Almost all observers are of the view that the pager attack required meticulous planning and a high degree of coordination. Hezbollah reportedly avoids the use of mobile phones and depends on low-tech pagers to communicate. Clearly, someone in Tel Aviv was aware of these facts and decided to exploit weaknesses in the system.

Both before and after the Oct 7 events, Israel has displayed brazenness and a manifest lack of respect for the sovereignty of regional states. Its targeting of an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus in April; subsequent assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah operatives and commanders; the July murder of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the latest provocation in Lebanon shows that while Israel publicly speaks of not wanting to expand the war, its actions suggest otherwise. Iran is yet to respond to the Haniyeh assassination, and it is clear that Tel Aviv is daring Tehran and its allies in the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to make the next move. This dangerous brinkmanship is likely to drag the region — and the global economy — into a vortex of violence and instability. America’s efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza, which would lead to region-wide de-escalation, are farcical to say the least, as US diplomats appear to be pleading Israel’s case at every forum, instead of being impartial mediators. Israel has sent mixed signals, saying it does not want war, but is ready to confront Hezbollah; Sunday’s pager blasts did not seem like a peace offering. Israel can fire the first shot in a new regional war, but where such a conflagration leads will be in no one’s control.

Published in Dawn, September 19th, 2024