IN the words of Vladimir Lenin, there are no morals in politics; there is only expedience. This aptly captures the chaos we are witnessing in global politics, particularly in the presidential race that is going on in the United States. Recent events, such as President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and the failed bid to assassinate former president Donald Trump, underscore the profound impli- cations of these power struggles on a macroeconomic level that are incredibly difficult to fathom.
The recent resignation of US Secret Service chief Kimberly Cheatle following intense scrutiny over the Trump shooting incident suggests a nation deeply divided on numerous fronts. In fact, this division is particularly concerning for Pakistan, given its significant economic ties with the US, which is a major market for Pakistani exports. Instability in the US will inevitably affect Pakistan politically and economically.
Further, predicting the future trajectory of the US is challenging, especially with the potential Trump administration’s aggressive stance against Iran and China, as well as its protectionist policies, such as higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump’s recent criticism of Ccntral bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and his promotion of Bitcoin indicate a direct confrontation with the policies of the powerful US Federal Reserve System.
A new Trump administration could be more perilous, given Trump’s vengeful attitude since the assassination attempt. Alternatively, he might emerge as a unifying force for the country’s future challenges. As it stands, the US bond market signals a recession with its yield curve inversion.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East and volatile internal politics suggest that anything may happen by November. Regardless of the election outcome, the deep division within American society suggests that neither side will accept the election result.
As we navigate these complex as well as uncertain times, an ancient Chinese curse comes to mind; May you live in interesting times. That is precisely what is happening in the modern world today. Has man’s modern existence been cursed?
Adil Hanif Godil
London, UK
Published in Dawn, August 6th, 2024
