BRUSSELS: Nato leaders will meet in Vilnius on July 11-12 to tackle a wide range of topics, from divisions over Ukraine’s membership bid and Sweden’s accession to boosting ammunitions stockpiles and reviewing the first defence plans in decades.

It will be the fourth Nato summit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the first held virtually on Feb 25, 2022, just one day after the assault, followed by meetings in Brussels and in Madrid.

The extraordinary flurry of gatherings stands in contrast to the previous rhythm of annual Nato summits and shows how war on its doorstep has forced the alliance to strengthen cooperation.

Security measures in Vilnius will be high, with three German Patriot air defence units deployed to protect the venue, a first for a Nato summit. Additional fighter jets will patrol the skies of Lithuania, which is wedged between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus and has long been seen as a vulnerable spot on Nato’s eastern flank.

‘Closer to war’

The summit looks set to be dominated by how Nato will define its future relationship with Ukraine, amid repeated calls by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for Kyiv to receive an invitation into the alliance at Vilnius. Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has made clear that Kyiv will not become a member while war rages, and that the Vilnius summit will not issue a formal invitation.

Still, allies are divided over how swiftly Ukraine should be allowed to join after the fighting ends.

While eastern European countries say a road map should be offered to Kyiv at the summit, the United States and Germany are wary of any move that might take the alliance closer to war with Russia.

Nato is also likely to find a stronger wording than 2008 to underscore Kyiv’s perspective for joining the alliance.

Security assurances

Leaders are expected to discuss what security assurances Kyiv should get for the time after the war, even though these pledges will be bilateral and not issued by the alliance itself.

They will likely include the promise of continued military and financial aid to Kyiv to deter Russia from a renewed attack once the war has ended. Stoltenberg has underlined that Nato — under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty — will provide full-fledged security guarantees to full members of the alliance only.

Leaders will review the first defence plans the alliance has drawn up since the Cold War, detailing how Nato would respond to a Russian attack.

The revival of the so-called regional plans signifies a fundamental shift. With the plans, the alliance also gives nations guidance on how to upgrade their forces and logistics.

Nato had for decades seen no need for large-scale defence plans but with Europe’s bloodiest war since 1945 raging just beyond its borders in Ukraine, it is now warning that it must have all planning in place well before a conflict with a peer adversary such as Moscow might erupt. Turkiye has been blocking approval of the plans over the wording on geographical locations such as Cyprus. The issue will be left for leaders to solve unless allies find agreement before the summit.

Published in Dawn, July 8th, 2023