ISLAMABAD: The European Union and its member states can apprise PTI Chairman Imran Khan about the risks of confrontation with the government in a bid to lessen the political polarisation in Pakistan, a new report has suggested.

The report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) — an independent organisation working for global peace — said Pakistan is currently facing three crises: political confrontation, a fragile economy and resurging militancy.

The ICG, in its ‘Watch List 2023’ — which identifies where the EU and its member states can intervene to enhance prospects for peace — stated Mr Khan has reached out to EU member states “in hopes of fixing the harm done by his anti-Western conspiracy narratives”.

“These governments can, at the very least, hold conversations with him about the risks associated with his confrontation with the Sharif government,” the report added.

New report suggests bloc talk to both sides; warns Pakistan needs much more than IMF loan to revive economy

For dealing with the other side, i.e. the government, the EU should emphasise that in order to gain benefits of the ‘GSP Plus’ scheme, the country should adhere to democratic norms, including respect for free speech and the freedom of association.

Mr Khan’s arrest has undermined the chances of compromise as the ex-premier was unlikely to accept the government’s preference for general elections in October.

Economic revival

According to the watch list, political polarisation has heightened at a time when there was a risk of default if Islamabad failed to reach an agreement with the IMF.

However, a deal with the IMF alone cannot avert this crisis as the economy needed a capital injection of “nearly 50 per cent larger than what the IMF would provide”.

But, lenders are unlikely to disburse the money amid political turmoil and investment risk would be too high.

Although the current government restarted the negotiations, “election-year calculations” appeared to have limited their options for economic revival.

The country has urged global powers, including the EU member states, to exercise their influence with the IMF to fast-track the bailout.

The ICG suggested EU member states help Islamabad in exchange for economic reforms to put Pakistan on a path to sustainable recovery.

The government should be stopped from taking populist measures for votes, the ICG suggested while cautioning that there should be a realistic understanding of how far Islamabad can be pushed to implement reforms.

‘Press Kabul to address Pakistan’s concerns’

The report suggested EU governments address Pakistan’s concerns over militancy, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

“In both quiet and public diplomacy, they should hold the Afghan Taliban to their pledge to prevent militants from attacking other countries, which they made in the 2020 peace agreement they signed in Qatar.”

Kabul should also be provided with support to maintain peace, such as technical assistance with border management.

Help in flood recovery

The EU and other countries, which pledged around $10 billion to assist Pakistan’s flood recovery efforts, should focus on helping the country build a resilient infrastructure.

The EU should also work with provincial governments to repair damaged health and education facilities and such assistance could be channelled through authorities or UN agencies such as WFP and WHO.

Published in Dawn, May 14th, 2023