FEW will be unfamiliar with the ‘minus-one formula’. Talk of it or one of its iterations seems to have coincided with the peak of every period of political turmoil in our history. The measure has usually been taken as a signal that a political leader may be close to being declared persona non grata by the powers that be and that those around the said individual should seize the opportunity and fill the vacuum that is about to be created.

It is an attempt to turn a political party against its own leader, usually in return for a survival guarantee. The ultimatum is one of several unconstitutional means that have been employed in the past to sabotage Pakistan’s civilian leaders when other measures fail.

For the nth time, the ‘minus-one formula’ has allegedly been reinserted into the calculus of power, with yet another civilian leader apprehending forced removal from the political equation. This time, it is the PTI chairman who claims that the forces opposed to him — ie, the “imported government” and its “handlers” — want him removed from the picture over fears he may return to power stronger than he was before.

Read: What next for the PTI?

This alleged ‘conspiracy’ was a recurrent theme in Imran Khan’s addresses to supporters over the weekend. It appears that as he feels the wrath of the establishment building, the former prime minister wants to use the public’s sympathies as a shield. However, it is difficult to say whether his fears are real or if he’s just creating noise to put the state under pressure to give him relief. One cannot simply ignore the fact that he started talking about the ‘minus-one formula’ just a day after the Islamabad High Court decided to indict him for contempt of court, and that particular bit of trouble was entirely his own doing.

However, the allegation also cannot be completely disregarded. There are many precedents for the ‘minus-one formula’ and ‘technical knockout’ in Pakistan’s political history. Several civilian leaders perceived as having become too big for their boots have been sidelined or forced out through questionable means. Prime ministers, presidents, and even lesser politicians deemed ‘undesirable’ for defying red lines have found themselves on the receiving end of ‘minus-one’.

Therefore, even if the threat of it being applied is being exaggerated, it is certainly not unthinkable given the downward trajectory of Mr Khan’s relationship with the state in recent months. If such a proposal is put forward, the PDM must resist the temptation to go along with it. Both Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have been targeted in the past under different ‘minus-one’ schemes, and they ought to realise the patent unfairness of it. No other entity except the people should have the power to decide the fate of a political leader. Any transgression of this rule is unacceptable in a democracy.

Published in Dawn, September 12th, 2022