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WHEN one hits a dead end street the only option is to turn around and take a detour. That is exactly what the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) is now trying to do after failing to shake the government through mass rallies. No more storming of the citadel at least for now. Instead the motley alliance has chosen to fight the system from within.
There is nothing surprising about this change of tack. Notwithstanding the hype built around the size of the rallies, they were not enough to bring down the government, however vulnerable it may appear. While there was no mass uprising against the PTI government, the division within the opposition alliance over its narrative remained a sticking point. Nawaz Sharif’s direct attack on the military leadership may have stimulated the alliance but that also blurred the target. The battle lines were never clearly drawn.
Not only some allied parties like the PPP but also many within the PML-N ranks did not seem convinced over the maximalist approach that also involved exercising the nuclear option of resigning from the legislatures. While the backtracking from the extreme position may be seen as a setback for the movement it has also saved the PDM from falling apart.
However, it remains to be seen if the PDM’s new strategy of fighting on both mass as well as parliamentary fronts could work. Staying in the system certainly gives the alliance more space for political manoeuvring. But the division among the coalition partners on tactical issues seems unbridgeable. That makes the long-term survival of the coalition questionable.
Staying in the system gives the PDM more space for political manoeuvring.
The strains between the PPP and the Sharif-Fazlur Rehman duo remain a major impediment in any sustainable and effective joint action. The stakes for the PPP in the system with its government in the country’s second largest province by population are certainly much higher than the other two parties. So it is not surprising that the PPP would not support any reckless move that could leave it in a politically disadvantageous position.
But it is not just the PPP but also the skepticism within the PML-N ranks that has pushed the PDM to put the resignation issue on the back-burner. No legislator would like to give up their hard-won seat on the whims of party leaders. So there is substance to the PPP argument that the opposition could create more problems for the Imran Khan government using its joint strength in the legislative assemblies.
As the largest party in the Punjab Assembly, the PML-N can bring down the PTI government in the province with some political manoeuvring. That could have a domino effect. It may not be easy but it is not impossible. It is however not sure whether this option will be acceptable to Nawaz Sharif and his daughter who want the whole system to go.
Given the situation, the PTI’s celebration over what it sees as PDM’s retreat is premature. The alliance now perhaps presents a bigger challenge to Imran Khan’s government with its growing vulnerabilities on various fronts. Punjab with a completely incompetent administration continues to be the PTI’s Achilles heel.
It may not be incorrect to say that in recent history the Buzdar government is perhaps the most ineffective government in Pakistan’s biggest and most powerful province. The collapse of various institutions of the government has paralysed the provincial administration. The opposition movement has further exposed the government’s various fault lines and the PTI’s faltering support base in the province. It is evident that Punjab remains the stronghold of the PML-N. Maryam Nawaz has certainly revitalised the party in the province.
But her organisational capacity remains questionable. Her reliance on the young Turks and her hardline approach may also upset the old guard. The internal party power struggle may have taken a back seat at the moment but it has not vanished. The differing views on the approach to the political struggle remain a thorny issue within the party, and the decision to postpone resignation from the assemblies seems to have come as a relief to the party ranks.
The PDM’s campaign over the past four months appears to have pushed the security establishment into a defensive position. There may not be any indication yet of the military leadership distancing itself from the Imran Khan government but the faltering governance and mismanagement of the Punjab government have long been cause of concern for the security establishment.
Those concerns are regularly expressed by retired army officers appearing on the electronic and social media. The PDM’s change of tack and visible softening of its tenor on the establishment is likely to have a positive affect on the military leadership. Some kind of political reconciliation may be appreciated but there is no likelihood of the security establishment pulling back from supporting the government.
The real problem for the PTI government, however, is the prime minister himself. There is no sign of him realising the seriousness of the situation. In fact he has hardened his position and does not show any desire to defuse the situation. The prospect of winning the majority in the Senate in the March election seems to have aggravated his lack of rationality.
His tenor has become more threatening. His irresponsible comments feed into the opposition’s narrative of his incapacity to deal with the multiple challenges faced by the country. It is not just about the governance but his flawed policies have also worsened the crisis. The most alarming thing is the rapid collapse of state institutions. There may have been improvement in some sectors of the economy but the prospect of overall economic recovery is not encouraging.
The prime minister’s arbitrary decisions have added to Punjab’s crisis of governance. It is not the opposition but the government’s own blunders and misgovernance that pose the greater threat to its survival.
The opposition has taken a walk back from the dead end and now it’s the government that needs to pull back from the politics of confrontation. There is still time for the government to turn around before it hits the dead end.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Twitter: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, January 6th, 2021
