VIOLENCE has flared in Ethiopia over the last several days, as an internal conflict has pitted the country’s Tigray state against the federal government in Addis Ababa. While the party that controls Tigray says it has fired rockets into a neighbouring state, Amnesty International has observed that a massacre involving “scores, and likely hundreds, of people” has occurred in the town of Mai-Kadra. The violence risks destabilising Ethiopia internally, and also has the potential to spread to the rest of East Africa; opponents of the government say they may target neighbouring Eritrea, while Sudan has been receiving refugees from the conflict. Defusing the internal crisis will be a major test for Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who won 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize for his peace agreement with Eritrea. However, in this case, Mr Ahmed seems to be talking tough, ordering military action against the TPLF party that runs Tigray, in an apparent effort to stop other states and regions from offering open resistance to the centre.

While the Ethiopian authorities have insisted this is an internal matter, they should not refuse the good offices of the UN or the African Union that can be used to defuse the crisis. After all, stability has come to the country after much turmoil. The 1980s were a turbulent time, especially under the Marxist Derg regime, which saw civil war as well as conflict with Eritrea and a devastating famine. To ensure that this painful history does not repeat itself, the Ethiopian prime minister must take the lead and invite his opponents to the negotiating table instead of looking for a victory on the battlefield. In a multiethnic and multireligious state like Ethiopia, the use of force may bring temporary respite, but tensions bubbling underneath may well explode in due course. Also, Ethiopia’s internal stability is important for the entire Horn of Africa, as in neighbouring Somalia, the world has witnessed how horribly things can go wrong should conflict — aided by the collapse of the state — continue unabated.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2020