AS the US has begun to intensify its campaign to renew a UNSC arms embargo against Iran that is due to expire in October, the Islamic Republic has started to push back, indicating that there will be far-reaching consequences if the embargo is extended. The US secretary of state has said he is “hopeful” the embargo would be extended, to which the Iranian president has replied that “grave consequences” would follow if that proved to be the case. Moreover, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has said the multilateral nuclear deal, which the US unilaterally exited in 2018, “will die forever” if the UN sanctions are extended.

Iran’s unease at the move is understandable. Despite signing the landmark 2015 nuclear deal that was widely hailed as a triumph of multilateral diplomacy over belligerence, the fruits of this agreement have failed to materialise for Tehran. This is mainly because the US has browbeaten all foreign investors thinking of putting their money in the Islamic Republic. To add to this, Donald Trump’s exit from the nuclear deal did away with years of painstaking diplomacy and set Washington on a collision course with Tehran. The American assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in January sent alarm bells ringing across the world, as the international community braced for a destructive new Middle East war. Thankfully, both sides backed down. It is also a fact that Iran has suffered greatly during the Covid-19 pandemic; Iranian officials say sanctions have impaired their efforts to secure medical supplies. At this time, extending the arms embargo would send the wrong message, and will add to tensions in an already traumatised world. Instead, Iran must be given sanctions relief in the midst of the pandemic. The Iranian establishment must also proceed with caution and refrain from reacting emotionally to provocations. If the embargo is extended and what remains of the nuclear deal is scuttled, the political and security temperature in the Middle East is bound to rise.

Published in Dawn, May 9th, 2020