PARIS, Aug 6: Leading industrialised countries are set for a period of weak growth but there are signs of light ahead, notably in the eurozone owing to activity in Germany, data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development indicated on Friday. Leading indicators for the eurozone have pulled out of a decline lasting for 18 months.

But the Italian economy is sending gloomy signals, the OECD suggested on the basis of calculations used as a guide to high and low points in the economic cyle. Data for the United States and Japan pointed to an improvement.

The OECD, a vast research and discussion body grouping 30 leading democratic and industrialised economies, said that “weak activity lies ahead in the OECD area”, in the light of the latest OECD composite indicator covering a range of statistics on trends.

But the OECD also said that the way the indicator had moved over six months, an important reading of the medium-term trend, pointed to an improving climate in all of the seven biggest OECD economies, except in Italy.

The overall composite leading indicator for the OECD area had risen by 0.6 points in June to 103.6, from 103.0 in May, and the six-month rate of change had risen for the second time, having fallen in the previous four months.

However, when calculated for separate countries, the indicator for the US economy had risen by 0.9 points in June and the six-month rate of change had risen for the second month running after three months of falls.

The indicator for the 12-state eurozone was flat in June but the rate of change over six months had risen for the first time, ending an 18-month decline which had begun in December 2003.

The indicator for Japan rose by 0.2 points and the six-month measure rose for the first time after having fallen for six months.

The figure for Britain was steady and the six-month measure rose for the second month. The monthly reading for Canada rose by 0.6 points and the six-month measure rose for the second month.

The indicator for France rose by 0.3 points in June and the six-month reading rose for the first month since a decline begun in March 2004.

The German monthly data rose by 0.6 points and the six-month figure rose for the second month, having fallen for 16 months since January of last year.

The OECD said: The composite leading indicator for Italy fell by 0.7 point in June and its six-month rate of change was down for the eighth month in a row.

The OECD explained that its composite indicator was intended to provide early signals of turning points, peaks and troughs, between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity and preferred the six-month rate of change as a pointer to possible turning points.

It said: In practice, peaks in gross domestic product have been found about nine months on average after the signals of peaks had been detected in the six-month rate of change.—AFP