LAHORE: The Punjab Food Outlook report for Kharif season 2019 predicts that area under cotton cultivation will increase by 3.85 per cent and of maize and rice by 5.85 and 1.06pc, respectively.
According to the report launched on Monday, within rice category, the area under Basmati cultivation is expected to increase by 1.3pc while under Irri variety will decrease marginally by 0.9pc.
The first of its kind report for Kharif has been prepared with the technical support of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) on the lines of FAO’s Global Food Outlook in response to a Punjab government’s request.
The main objective of the report is to provide estimated gaps between consumption and production and provide information to the government to take timely steps for addressing the same within the province.
Earlier, a similar report for Rabi 2019-20 season had been launched in January.
Punjab food outlook for Kharif prepared with support of FAO and IFPRI
Sharing main features of the report, Stephen Davies, one of the authors, said that results of the analysis were based purely on historic values and the estimations do not depict a drastic change from their previous trends.
Over the past few years, some amount of area is shifted between cotton and maize depending upon the market situation. This can be seen in the forecast values as well. For rice, expansion in basmati area is predicted to be driven by a higher export demand.
Suggesting the way forward, Mr Davies called for developing a complete picture by engaging crop experts, considering world markets and macroeconomic situation on crop to crop basis. Using high frequency data and examining trade-offs between crops as well as strengthening institutional structure were also need of the hour.
FAO Representative in Pakistan MinàDowlatchahi said: “It is important to review the findings of this report to help reach solutions based on evidence and better understand crucial factors such as area under cultivation, costs of production, impact of climate change, availability of agricultural inputs and other issues that small farmers face and their impact on the food outlook of Punjab.”
She asserted that the work could become the basis of National Food Security and Nutrition Information System for providing an outlook and enhancing forecasting capacities at the national level to support evidence-based policy making.
Punjab Agriculture Minister Malik Nauman Langrial termed the report an impetus to agricultural development in the province and appreciated the efforts of FAO and IFPRI in its preparation to help agriculture enter a new era of evidence-based decision making.
Special Secretary (Agriculture Marketing) Ehsan Bhutta said the department would study the report in depth and might form a sub-group for outlining implementation strategy on the basis of the report.
Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2019
