Pakistan’s GDP growth to fall behind Nepal, Maldives this year: UN
ISLAMABAD: The annual Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2019 titled ‘Ambitions beyond Growth’, released by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) on Thursday, forecast Pakistan’s GDP to remain lowest in the region at 4.2 per cent in 2019 and 4pc in 2020 compared to Bangladesh’s 7.3pc, India 7.5pc, Maldives and Nepal 6.5pc each in 2019.
The survey revealed that overall economic conditions in the region are stable with the projected 5-5.1 per cent GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 respectively. However, export-oriented sectors face headwinds from weaker demand in Europe and possibly in US, and looming uncertainty over ongoing US-China trade war.
Read:Pakistan's GDP growth expected to slow down to 3.9pc: ADB report
Pakistan’s economy is experiencing severe balance of payment difficulties amid large fiscal and current account deficits and mounting pressures on the currency, the report adds.
Inflation in the developing Asia-Pacific region is forecast to increase moderately in 2019 to 4.2pc before dropping to 3.8pc in 2020. However, potentially higher tariffs against the backdrop of trade tensions and rising uncertainties, currency depreciation and unfavourable weather could push up consumer and food prices.
According to the survey, the region’s medium-to-long term prospects depend on structural transformation and broad-based productivity growth. The report cautions against countries shifting from an agriculture-based economy to one in which services play a dominant role, bypassing manufacturing sector.
New frontier technologies may reduce the scope for industrialisation in “late entrant” developing countries, while high-value-added services require skilled workers. This calls for investment in people and enabling infrastructure, the survey suggests.
Stating that the next phase of structural transformation in the region must be environment-friendly, the survey illustrates that investments to speed up transition to more resource-efficient systems of production and consumption would not only reduce carbon emissions by a tenth, but deliver high economic returns and over time can reduce net financial costs to zero.
The 2019 survey points out that achieving Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 would require an annual additional investment of $1.5 trillion for Asia-Pacific developing countries — equivalent to 5pc of their combined GDP in 2018.
Despite rapid economic growth, the survey notes, too many people are left behind, without a fair chance in life, while environmental degradation has reached alarming levels, threatening the sustainability of past development gains. Hence, keeping the old paradigm of prioritising GDP growth at all costs is neither feasible nor desirable, the report argues.
Published in Dawn, April 5th, 2019
Comments (144) Closed
Pti kerp it up. Pakistani people care about favorite parties and leader then economy. Pakistan good luck with your pti
No worry still "we are happiest country". Happiness index will not be affected
Normalizing relations with India Boost in bilateral trade with India These are only solutions of Pakistan's current situation One can not survive on loan or donations Pakistan must come foreword and see how the world is changed.
Difficult time for Pakistan. Time to give up arrogance and be friendly with neighbors. Business across the border is beneficial. Learn from Bangladesh. Compiting with India in growth rate. Of course they are not carrying burdon of security forces, sitting idle most of the time
Funny..blame this on external forces as well
This is Naya Pakistan with everyone on the same page, so no debate and no change possible.
Naya Pakistan
All this strategic depth and kashmir first policy comes at a cost. Enjoy the tradeoffs made.
Declining day by day because of lack of reforms in the country, blindfolded politics, Exrimist cross border activities and thier personal propaganda.
And looking for parity with India.
It does not matter. Pakistan is focused on Kashmir and will do everything to keep it boiling even if Pakistan goes bankrupt.
Congratulations !!, but many in Pak will feel UN is simply cooking up stories
It is time to take action without getting discouraged, import should be restricted, utilize manpower & agriculture. Attract FDI from people of Pakistan settled abroad, China has exactly done the same, utilize electricity, install Metro Trains instead of Cars & Buses consuming petroleum.
PTI is doing great. Asad Umar is the best economic brain. GDP is just a number, if it goes down to zero even Imran Khan will be able to fetch some loan to run the nation.
What....Come on Pakistan, you can do better!
CPEC has changed the game. Really!!!
Due to US-China trade war, a lot of Chinese companies are coming to Bangladesh which will create huge local employment and export will also increase a lot. So Bangladesh GDP will be bigger next year, no doubt.
All thanks to PTI.
It happens when you don't focus on your own country,and focus on some other country and their state and people.
Hi Dawn! Over and over same news, what you gonna prove with such news. Have you any guts to unearth real reasons the predecessors did with this economy. How much loan we are taking to repay earlier loans. 09 months are required to deliver a baby and upbringing this poor baby with weak parents need time and efforts. Give time rather discouraging them unnecessarily.
This is what happens when a PM is selected and not elected.
When a nation was stuck in security paradigm, economy takes back seat. Sadly even today your defence spending % to GDP is highest in South Asia. You are isolated in region due to logical and monetary support to radical outfits that are hurting your neighbors. As a result no one is interested to trade with you. Population explosion, illiteracy, unemployment is rising. You are headed towards disaster. All loans need to be paid with interest. No game changer can save you now.
Narendra modi to receive highest civilian award from UAE
But we must have Kashmir at all cost!
So heart wrenching sad, such amazing potential this land has. The politicians have ruined the dream with their corruption, nepotism and ego. But we keep hoping and praying for the dawn after a seemingly never ending night. Pakistan Zindabad!
Pakistan has more people than Nepal and Maldives this. A great many more. In some ways smaller is better.
Imran Khan has understood the need for cost cutting on rubbish expenses. But he still needs to understand the need for increasing govt spending to boost the economy. Also ppl of Pakistan should give him more time. It will take years of policy making to ensure steady growth. Plus Pakistan needs to do a lot more to attract global investments.
Just two weeks back pakistan finance minister said " Pakistan's worst financial crisis over "
CPEC will be a game changer..Don’t worry
India is set to be a US $5 trilliom economy in 5 years
Just wait, all focus is on Indian election.
Dejavu of 2008 and 2013 when Pakistan faces BOP crisis after every 5 years forcing it back to IMF. Hope PTI will fix this problem for good by doubling our exports which have gone down dramatically over the past 5 yrs... there's no other solution..it's definitely now or never for Pakistani economy.....
This PTI government is trying its best. It inherited a huge debt, courtsey of NS &S government.If those theives were running the show with their cronnies [Dar], the economy would had shunted by now. Imran khan is a person trying to manage the mis-management of decades. The people of pakistan have to be patient and persever with IK. It is IK and his team, will lead to pakistan out of this mess, which would eventyually lead to paece across the region.
Naya Pakistan
Pakistan GDP is around 250 billion dollars, where as India's is 2.5 Trillion, India is growing at the rate of 7.5%, while Pakistan is growing at the rate of 4.2%, if this trend continues, where will be Pakistan and where will be India in the period of 5 years? Confrontation with India is proving huge burden on Pakistan's economy. Indians are not war mongers, they want peace, give up your claims on Kashmir, improve relationship with India, all the economic woes of Pakistan will be solved
Atleast now Pakistan should shun its obsession with Kashmir and anti India sentiment. And start trade with india. All other south Asian countries have good trade relations with india why not Pakistan?
Pakistan was on the right side of US from 1950 to 2005. After 2006 in last 19 years No US president has visited Pakistan, though they have visited India multiple times. Pakistan is on the wrong side standing with China. China does not have any major country as Friend, where as every country in the world is friend with US. Pakistan should become friend with US and keep a distance from China, so that all other countries do not want to see standing with China. US will become angry, if you become close to China as it happened in Turkey's case.
Who cares GDP Growth we got CPEC.
@KSRana, it's very strange shocking Pakistan have to rethink policy
Everything said and done we are a nuclear power...
Pls. see south Asia Three Big Country Currency rate against USD source is XE.COM,
Amount 1 From USD US Dollar To PKR Pakistani Rupee 1USD = 141.543 PKR
Amount 1 From USD US Dollar To BDT Bangladeshi Taka 1USD = 84.3072 BDT
Amount 1 From USD US Dollar To INR Indian Rupee 1USD = 69.2142 INR
The root cause of Pakistan flop show is poking other countries...the day pakistan stop thinking about kashmir, afganistan as well as Iran.....Pakistan economy will prosper.....
Even we eat grass, no business with India.. If onion shortage , we will buy even from Argentina. For the people of our great islamic republic, prestige and self honor is more important..
last hope is failing.what's next?
All Pakistani cash is for LoC
So what, we will still spend all our resources on Kashmir Policy, even if it costs everything else we have now. Wow..
@What then what will happen to Kashmir issue to Pakistan? Because of this problem even India is also losing huge money on terrorism or on arms. But Indian economy is really strong. India can survive it. But can Pakistan afford it for longer time?
Despite all these follies, Pak is still the happiest and its ISI is best in the world in terror export which brings lot of forex reserves unlike India.
If you remove CPEC investment then pakistan growth will be negative.
"Pakistan’s economy is experiencing severe balance of payment difficulties amid large fiscal and current account deficits and mounting pressures on the currency, the report adds." This sums up what the real issue is . Ishaq Dar was the genius behind this . He waisted Billions of Dollars artificially supporting the Pakistani Rupee at 108 PKR to USD . When a former Finance minster Ishaq Dar clearly states that this was his stated policy and doesn't listen to anyone and to this day continues to defend it and is an absconder from the law says it all. Any one with basic finance 101 will tell you this is wrong. An export based economy like Pakistan needs a currency which is adjusted according to the supply and demand of the market conditions not artificially inflated. Unfortunately the damage done by our genius Ishaq Dar will take few years. Rupee now is adjusting as it is not being supported. This will mean in the short term higher inflation and pain for the poor and middle class.
Thank you Sir IK and Sir Asad Umer
Stupid pti
This is a conspiracy to destabilise CPEC.
Short term pain for long term gain.
@KSRana, Ofcourse it wont, because we are correcting past wrongs and living in reality unlike those who make up their own figures, live in denial, dont look at stark reality and live in their made up world.
@Human, lol.. HOW? is the main question.
Opposition is holding PTI back.
PTIs performance will be judged in year 3. Economy takes 2 to 3 years to change.
Grant MFN status to India and start $35 billion trade.
@Alien1, and the rest of them were elected?
Dawn is publishing some thought provoking articles and such reporting is highly appreciated. Pakistan needs to roll up it's socks and come out of this with a plan.
It doesn't matter.Once recovery of looted money is made our GDP growth will tremendously increase and after PTI putting the economy in right direction it will grow in double digits.We do no want the corrupt culture to come back specially in Sindh.
@Zak, Bhai wah! How slowing down will bring long term gain??
@Zak, You cant correct past, only present you can. By the way you are repeating past by taking loans and celebrating after getting loans and this cycle will repeat again and again.
@Ismail, Better to be ostrich
This is all part of the plan to increase foreign investment.
Hats off to corrupt rulers, bureaucracy, IMF WB and the capitalist system all have ruined this country.
if pakistan will be close friend of India instead of China they will definitely get more benefit than China
Blank sheet its all to blame 30years old govts.. correct current rulers ...its rubbed in our minds whats next...
@Ismail,
Well ruling are always behaving like opposition... take all 30years even ...
@Kalyan, why do you worry? India needs to compete against China.
All hue and cry will be over once pakistan secures IMF package. Then relax for next 6 years.
Did they take under consideration the non accounted (underground economy) in calculating real GDP. As per best estimate for each 1 rupee there is 3 rupees unaccounted for.
@Zak: Correcting your past wrongs will take another 70 years. Carry on. All the best!
Bangladesh has surpassed Pakistan in GDP nominal...... pakistani citizen should invest in dollars because after some months they can earn profit when PKR is devalued as per IMF
@Bilal Khan, Who said so that economy takes 2-3 years to recover. I think you never hear to Sir IK's speeches. PTI can recover all money in 100 days, send corrupts to jail in one month, remove taxes from petrol and bring price lower in one month. I fully agree with Sir IK that if corrupts are in government then only prices go higher
@Zia , It is also Now or Never for PTI
@DVK, First should try to be friendly with ourselves and elect the right politicians
@Zak, you should be living in lala land, to say PTI is correcting the past. This is not the first time Pakistan is approaching IMF for bailout. Logic is simple, since there's no money to pay interest, country seeks more loans. This is nothing but repetitive of the past behaviour that led to the current crisis. Optimism is good, but if it is too far from reality, then it is nothing but hallucination. To understand the difference between hope and hallucination , you should come to your senses.
Crises phase is over, Stabilization phase has begun. Asad Umer is doing great, wait for some time.
It all has become due to past several years of bad governance.
In Naya Pakistan new benchmarks will be set with elites thriving and the poor crushed.
Bangladesh 2019 projected GDP growth 8.13% (ADB).
CPEC will be fully complete within the next few months. Then let’s see who the leader is. China will pour in billions and billions.
Very upsetting news....even Nepal and Maldives will be ahead of pakistan....unless government spending is drastically cut on all fronts including defence and stringent measures are taken against corruption, this nation will disintegrate due to civil war.....fight against poverty should be the goal of every pakistanis.....
as expected this govt has no vision no planned roodmap and confused finance minister and a cricketer who is giving us false promises
@Zak GDP growth 4% and defense expe nse growth 20%.How is that correcting past mistakes?
not always a good kaptan is good pm..pti past track record of kp is not worth talking about i dont understand why public vote only for imran's name
It is such a pity. The economy of Pak was probably one of the better performing in late 60s even compared to India and China. Since then it is loot. A lot of govt got addicted to IMF loans and bail outs and then use loan money for their benefits. The best way for Pak is to normalize relations with neighbors and increase trade. Forget everything else and do anything to secure a better economic state.
Bring back Dar. Dar as FM for life.
@Zak, want some USD?
@citizen, I don’t think you understand what prestige and honour means! You can delude yourself by eating grass but think about your future generations!
Good for Pakistan.
@Kalyan, It us not correct. India's GDP is around 3tnUSD...
@Taimur, ‘Sir IK’?
@KSRana, Keep laughing, with empty stomachs
@Angry Pitbull, probably he wanted to say ever instead of over
PTI's governments solution to the dilemma... No,problem just blame it on the predecessors and sit comfortably doing nothing...!
PTI is quickly achieving its target to ruin Pakistan's economy.
@Raja Parekh, He is not worried he is just showing you the mirror and telling you that you are on your way to bankruptcy. And what do you think? India is competing with China at all times that is why indian economy makes you so jealous.
‘Pakistan’s economy is experiencing severe balance of payment difficulties amid large fiscal and current account deficits and mounting pressures on the currency, the report adds.’
We should thank NS and AZ
@Chinpaksaddique, But will take back trillions in profits
There is something seriously wrong with FBR and the finance division. They should be investigated by independent auditors like PWC. All they have done is lying and corruption.
@Kalyan, simple truth but who wants to hear it? They are hell-bent on race to the bottom!
By next year Bangladesh GDP will be 9percent or near because end of this year padma bridge will be completed which is biggest project of history of Bangladesh (finance by Bangladesh government 4 billion us dollar)so this what you called development
New economy requires scientific education and mindset. Education dollars are going to defense so no hope for change
Unbiased, independent, transparent and third-party literature review prove that more than 75 percent of forecasting processes eventually prove to be either wrong or misleading.
Even Nepal and Maldives have better GDP than Pakistan..what a shame
This is transition period where Pakistan is being put on right track. All previous govt has made Pakistan as an importers paradise and only concentrated on taking loans and making a customer related growth. Pakistan's industry has been destroyed and imports increase manifold. Now govt is trying to put pakistan economy on right track. This will first be painful and people had to pay taxes, and importers will be in difficult times, but eventually PAKISTAN will be better both stability and economy wise. InshAllah
Pakistani's want to see instantaneous results, nation building is a long term process, nations which have progressed have gone thru the the grind. Invest in your citizens, with better education, health, maximize the use of local manpower,
Excellent! Keep doing what u r doing.
go fetch some more loans
Economical cooperation amongst Asian countries is a must.
@Zak, That is what opposition does in a democracy.
Is Pakistan gdp better than Somalia?
Pakistan economy is based on import without any export it is called easy living value of Rupee says it all.
Pakistan is paying the price for being fiercely independent and having a free foreign policy. We will survive with fewer dollars but won't compromise on our pride. Times will change for the better
@Ali Sabir, what to say about India then?
If US invest in a country then most western countries and Japan and South Korea follow suit as they see US as the standard of global investment when it starts investing in a country.Remember it was first the US companies started investing in China during the President Reagan era as he wanted China to move out of communism and at least start a open economic policy.After world war 2 it was US who funded the Europe economic boom.So confrontation with US and its ally India will not go well in long run.
@Zak, It’s already 9month PTI took over .Atleast they should have some economic plan in place in these months but they started taking loan and repeat the same thing.
So such time has come now that things now compared with Nepal, Maldives ?
@citizen, great sarcasm
Imran appears to be sincere to the country but he must not rely on finance minister, Asad, to run the complex economy of the country not matter how close they are with their friendship. The country can afford to hire a few experts from wall street who are Harvard brains. This is very serious are results are showing downward trend. We must not beat a dead horse to perform who is novice i-e Asad.
@RationalBabu , Friend, he was being sarcastic.
Nepal was 6.3% in the year 2017-18 while the Maldives was 8.7% in the same year? Pakistan is behind both from the last 2 years? I am surprised how this made the headlines?
@Ali Sabir, But Pakistan is smaller than India. If smaller is better, then how come India is doing so much better than Pakistan?
CPEC has been a game changer
@Chinpaksaddique, Did you ever check the rate of interest that your friend China is charging its good friend Pakistan for all the billions in loans that it is offering Pakistan?
This does not happen overnight. Thanks to loot, plunder and crminal neglect of past elected governments we brought this upon ourselves. PTI or for that matter any one else could not have stemmed this rot of many years to stem in 6 months. At least we now are aware of the reality instead of lies, juglury and number minupulation. As a nation we have to understand that next 5 years will be very tough and it will take a Herculean , honest and tough economic regime to stabilize. In short term the plunderers should be made to return looted public wealth and then build progressive and consistent economic policies for future.
Sad to see some very naive comments here. Please wake up as the "moment of truth" is upon us.
If $60 billion of CPEC could not Change the Game what else will?
What you sow so shall you reap.
Once benefits of CPEC starts kicking in, all these so-called experts will be eating their words.
Hard, bold decisions are needed not in Islamabad but Rawalpindi. Until that does not happen, things will remain the same.
Pakistan should shut the door on the world except it's friends
Corruption has brought Pakistan to this situation , not pti , Normalization with India is a good idea, but without getting rid of the corruption , it will be difficult for Pakistan to survive.It is as simple as that.
All this due to acute corruption. Hope IK is given enough time to turn things around.
Pakistan's GDP growth will still be higher than USA(< 2 %), Canada (about 2 5 ) and all developed countries.
Yes the economy is bad and getting worst and our economy has been bad for many years already due to wrong focus of leadership. Pakistan is not an economic powerhouse but a powerhouse for Islamic Thought and Thelogy and Space Technology and Weapon Technology. Therefore leadership should focus on these strengths to build the economy and not manufacturing, IT services etc.
Bitter rivalry between India and Pakistan having a negative effect on both counties' economies. Only thing to be seen is which economy will go bust before the other.
well done pakistan
Thanks to Imran Khan.
@citizen, hope ur govt too take same decision ,
@Angry Pitbull, problem s lies from top to bottom ..
@Haider Imam, growth rate will be higher, growth per se - it is simple math, you should be able to figure that out for yourself. Can you?
It's a real news , I just read Pakistan economy cpec and forgen policy.