In the last two months, Pakistan has gone through stages in the water supply cycle to finally hit the bottom line.

It all started with routine water shortages, progressed to an exceptional dip in the river flow, gathered urgency when the dams started emptying and finally has reached drought like conditions — spelling disaster for the agriculture sector and exposing Kharif crops (cane, cotton and rice) to varying degrees of dangers.

Currently, the country’s entire water supplies are only enough to meet human consumption demand leaving crops, orchards and fodder without sufficient water.

This period has also created history for dam operations and river inflows. Both reservoirs have repeatedly hit dead levels, something that has never happened before.

Currently, the country’s entire water supplies are only enough to meet human consumption demand leaving crops, orchards and fodder without sufficient water

So far the Tarbella dam has already touched dead level four times — in the first week of March, on April 30, May 7 and finally on May 29 where it currently stands. During the intervening period, the dam only improved by a foot or two before dipping to death again.

Mangla dam lost all its water in February and has still not been able to take off despite historically being an early riser.

The abysmal river flows are also making history. The earlier record of early Kharif water shortages was created in 2001 when supplies were short by 44 per cent. Right now, shortages are over 60 per cent because of empty reservoirs and abnormally low river flows.

Last Thursday (when this piece was written) total national supplies were at 157,000 cusecs — A relatively better day in term of supplies — as compared to 392,000 cusecs on May 31, 2017.

The unfortunate truth is that this drought is of our own making. According to the record of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), Pakistan wasted around 10.50 million acre feet (MAF) to the sea last Kharif and then immediately started the following Rabi season with a massive shortage of 37 per cent.

With low rains and less snowfall, the shortages swelled to 40 to 45pc in April this year, which rose to the current 60pc in early May. Had the country managed to save even one-third of the wasted water after meeting delta requirements, it would have been in much more comfortable position.

Irsa now sees some relief by the end of June when temperatures in catchment areas rise above 35 degree Celsius and cause snow melt. It is praying for a break in the current cycle of high and low temperatures in catchment areas that are translating into huge fluctuations in river supplies.

With water supplies touching rock bottom and becoming ever more erratic, farmers and agricultural planners are at a total loss on how to deal with the situation for by praying. According to them, these conditions will impact crop yield. They are not sure about the extent of the damage but are certain that the country should be prepared for trouble.

The critical stages of three major Kharif crops (cotton, cane and rice) are making them nervous. At present, cotton sowing is only around 60pc complete and has run into exceptionally high temperatures in the plains of Punjab.

With the entire crop under extreme heat stress with no water supplies the sowing of the remaining 40pc will become difficult and yield of the already sown areas an uncertain proposition.

Water is particularly vital for cotton given the new BT varieties, which cover more than 90pc of sown area, need more water for maturity. Last year, cotton production increased by 11.85pc, playing a major role in overall sectoral growth of 3.8 per cent.

Similarly, rice registered 8.65pc growth last year, taking the total yield up to 7.44m tonnes — a record figure. The crop right now is nearing the transplanting stage in Punjab and will need a massive amount of water.

The farmers transplant the crop in almost six inches of standing water, which seems to be an impossibility to achieve given the current state of affairs.

Sugarcane production grew by 7.45pc last year and helped the sector recover by a good 3.81pc. This year the crop may become a drag as it is currently at a very critical stage of rapid growth but water — the most vital input — has gone completely missing at this stage. In some areas of Punjab, reports of the crop’s sun-burning have started trickling in.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, June 4th, 2018