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CONSIDER the past and you shall know the future, says a Chinese proverb. That is something the Narendra Modi government did not keep in mind when it embarked on its ill-considered move to confront the Chinese on the Doklam border row last year. An aggressive stance as India knows to its cost since the bruising 1962 war has never helped it to get the better of its large and more powerful neighbour; patient negotiation, on the other hand, has enabled it to deal successfully and quietly with China on border skirmishes. The success lies in the fact that the two countries have managed to live with the world’s biggest boundary dispute these many decades without letting it affect the cultural bonds they share or cramping trade relations. Both have, in fact, flourished in recent times.
But the past was ignored by the BJP regime which has thoughtlessly needled the Chinese over the past three years. There was the frequent feting of the Dalai Lama including a much-publicised visit to Arunachal Pradesh, the sensitive border state, and a meddling in affairs that were best left alone, such as the South China Sea problem. New Delhi also cocked a snook at Beijing by reviving ‘the Quad’, an informal — and pointless — alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and India formed primarily to counter the rise of China. When a party plays to its domestic gallery it tends to forget the strategic costs of immature initiatives.
The nadir was reached with Doklam. In mid-January, the Modi regime’s attempt to stare down China on a border dispute involving Bhutan and China ended in a major embarrassment for the country when China began building a huge military complex in Doklam, close to the site where Indian troops had been despatched rather impetuously to stop the construction of a road in July 2017. While asking India not to interfere in ‘legitimate’ infrastructure development in its sovereign territory, Beijing also administered a sharp rap on the knuckles to Modi’s handpicked chief of army staff Bipin Rawat. “The Indian senior military officer has recognised that it was the Indian border troops who crossed the border … This incident has put bilateral relations to … severe test. We hope the Indian side can learn lessons from this....”
Some lessons appear to have been learned. India is now going all out to address China’s sensitivities even if it means stepping back from the muscular nationalism that has characterised the BJP’s approach to neighbours. Institutional frameworks that were given short shrift earlier are back at the centre of a more realistic policy that is being pieced together by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) since there is a realisation that not much has worked to India’s advantage with the exception of relations with Iran.
India is beginning to reset a brash foreign policy that has damaged ties with China and others.
The architect of the salvage mission is new foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale, a seasoned China hand, who appears to be well regarded by the authorities in Beijing. Last month, Gokhale’s meetings with top Chinese officials resulted in a decision by the two sides to initiate a sustained level of dialogue which will include a visit to China by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj who has been kept in the shadows by a prime minister determined to play the sole starring role on foreign policy. It is hoped that by the time Modi meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in June in Qingdao, relations between the two countries would have been set on a firmer footing.
The question is how willing Modi supporters and the BJP’s ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, are willing to accept the new reality. Convinced of their latent superiority, the saffron brigade of Hindu supremacists believes China is a competitor that needs to be contained and that India and the US are natural allies in such a project. To concede that China is more powerful and far too rich to be considered in the same league as India is anathema to it. Besides, there is the deep-rooted yearning to avenge the defeat of 1962.
MEA, naturally, is taking a more pragmatic view of geopolitical realities. The official release on Gokhale’s talks in Beijing notes the “need to build on the convergences between India and China and address differences on the basis of mutual respect and sensitivity to each other’s concerns, interests and aspirations”. That explains why MEA was able to persuade the government to issue a circular asking senior officials not to attend functions marking the 60th anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s exile in India — an unexpectedly dramatic shift for a regime that couldn’t have enough of the Dalai Lama in the past three years.
With ties to all its neighbours in tatters — the latest to thumb its nose at India is Maldives — and allies turning hostile, Modi, who often appears dazzled by his proximity to world leaders, is staring at a largely blank balance sheet. Disillusionment with Trump is ineluctable as the US pushes an aggressive ‘America first’ policy and warns of trade war against India (and China). Modi supporters who offered ritual prayers for Trump’s victory in the presidential election are now at a loss to understand why Trump not only mocks Modi publicly but also threatens sanctions against India.
The reset in relations with China is likely to have an impact on Delhi’s dealings with Islamabad, too. The more remarkable development has been the unexpectedly public criticism by the army brass of New Delhi’s policies and of their chief’s hawkish stance on neighbours. Gen Rawat’s claim last June that the Indian Army was ready for a “two-and-a-half-front war” was dismissed recently by the chief of the western command who said it was not a “smart idea” at all. Instead, he suggested that India should improve ties with China because it would also help in resolving the Pakistan problem by giving India the best possible leverage.
The frustration with the government’s inability to deal with the volatile Pakistan border prompted another general to state that “restoring ceasefire requires statesmanship, not brinkmanship.” Both generals were speaking at an open conference and they were clearly sending a message to Modi: reset foreign policy to meet India’s goals.
The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi.
Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2018
Comments (65) Closed
I am now convinced Modi’s policy is working.
Beautiful article. She is Asma Jahangir of India. Hats off.
India is making a balance act that was affected in the past decade after it moved towards US starting with nuclear alliance. The alliance with US, Japan, Australia and so on is not useless as author says. There is need for a great balancing with countries all around. India has managed to improve exports to China and at same time China cannot indefinitely support Pakistan in major forums as it was proved in FATF.
It is good that India had the guts to stare down the bully, thereby protecting Bhutanese territory in Doklam
Very informative and interesting - this is good advice not only for Indian leadership but all the countries with similar ambitions. Pakistan should also follow this path and if India can act similarly, this region can become the most prosperous regions in the world. Neither India nor anyone else will then need to go to Europe and US for armament shopping spree (by Indians).
Isn't India accessing Vietnam? China keeps its soft hard stance and I see that India is doing the same.
To deal with china,you need to be aggresive otherwise see what is happening in south china sea, with taiwan, tibet. China has no respect for any of its neighbours, it is only interested in expansion. What modi is doing is the right approach
Need some more home work on Foreign policy.
The indo-Sino relationship is bad news for Pakistan
During Doklam tension China stopped piligrims of India access to its border but dare not to close its border of trade with India.China knows India is a nuclear power and confronting with it will be a disaster.
So, in nutshell, New Delhi is in a process to improve its foreign policy? Had the Indian National Congress (INC) with whom the foreign policy rested for so long been adept at handling the border issues, things would have been different today - for both India and Pakistan. Modi is not a magician as former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said. Mere coming to power for a 5-year-term is not going to work as a panacea for ailments, which have been hollowing out the country for past three decades.
Best way for India to along with neighbours are to peacefully settle all disputes. India has not been serious about solving the Kashmir dispute since New Delhi landed troops in the state. Deep down people know that Kashmir´s sympathies is with Pakistan, the Indian-Muslim state which was created for it (meaning the Muslim majority states).
Mr Modi appears to be doing very well.
China knows India's military power, one wrong move can be disastrous for both who want to be economically powerful.
China is just a big bully and thinks of itself as the greatest of all. India (and USA and Europe) should gradually wean itself off trading with China and making it economically stronger, leading to a greater strength in its military power.
To be fair, it was not India that started the Doklam crisis. China started building on territory that Bhutan claimed as its own. Since India has a bilateral security pact with Bhutan, it had to make a stand. Eventually Xi Jinping and Modi talked the matter through and both sides withdrew.
Who is she?
The author really is a world class strategist, by publishing her strategy she will be sought after by the world leaders.
India should realise that China is nearly the biggest world economy and they are plying in trillions now, whereas India is still begging others to inves in India.
@Saif Zulfiqar . Get your facts .
To sum up Modi, two steps back then one step forward.
It is wise to have steady dance and acts about peace all the time instead of alternative changing ones between war and peace.
Does author think that bowing down to China will make China consider India's concern? I don't think so. China's policy is press till get rebuttal. Modi is fearless guy and he knows the strength of 1.25 billion people. Who don't have faith in their citizens can talk like surrendering. Modi's diplomacy is working very well to give signal to China that if you do not pay attention to India's concern, don't expect India will pay attention to China's concern. Can Pakistan dare to go against China ?? China is playing Pakistan as a pawn against India. That's it.
China knows very well India's strength in military and economical power
Feel pity for her.
@Saif Zulfiqar
And guess what boss? People ARE investing in India, despite what you'd like to insinuate...
If Ms. Jishnu writes something then you can be certain that it is the exact opposite or something that Pakistani's want to read.
@Saif Zulfiqar when will Pak realise....my friend. I hope you know that India is the fastest growing major economy in the world. Remember when all the traffic is coming head on, you are yourself in the wrong lane!
@Saif Zulfiqar where your country stand we are two trillion dollars economy
Getting down the drain.
I don't know if the actions were brash in the first place. I don't know who won the perceptual Doklam war. But having the will to change your policies when they are not working is a sign of maturity. Modi had made it clear during his initial PM days, I may do many wrongs but my intentions will always be clean.
"Modi, who often appears dazzled by his proximity to world leaders"
Like it or not bear hugs, knuckle cracking handshakes, pushing other aside to get into picture frames; these are the characteristics of that.
Neo liberals like Latha think they are entitled to peace and harmony, and the peace will come by waving candles and doing peace walks. There are much smarter people and much informed people than u and me shaping the foreign policy of this country. Policy shifts occur when interests align, so I’m sure the FO has their reasons.
@Khan - Nobody knows who she is, in India. I found out about her from her articles in Dawn.
I don't agree with many of Modi's domestic policies but as far as foreign policy & diplomacy is concerned, I have to say that he's probably the most effective leader India has ever had. Modi is taking India to uncharted heights on the global stage.
India and pakistan have to learn that any kind of alliance with a powerful country is never safe..india and Pakistan has to do away with the policy of hate and start a new chapter...we have so much common within the sub continent..culture wise,.we are so close and yet too far...if indian and pakistanis can live in peace in USA and most part of Europe...why cant we live in peace in subcontinent...may the leadership is different in the west.the west wants to take care of the region and its people..on the other hand our politics thrives on hate and war mongering..Tomorrow's outcome for our nation is dependent upon how we act today to create the outcomes we desire for our country. Individual accountability is each of our responsibilities if we want to rebuild, renew and restore the great values that can make us a global super power and light of hope to the rest of the world. Each of us is either part of the problem or the solution...
@abbastoronto It is another way of maintaining status quo with much more powerful adversary. This so-called blow hot blow cold is to have your way despite appearing to address the adversary's concerns.
@King 2.8 trillion actually
We cannot fight Pakistan or China. Both are strong countries and Nucleuar arms. Our foreign policy has left us isolated in the region and ignored by countries outside the region.
@Azad - "Nobody knows who she is, in India."
Hysterical media drowns voices like her there!
@Harmony-1© True, Modi is all bluster and not cunning enough to become a dictator and PM for life. At least you make clear who you admire.
India still thinks it is an independent country with an independent foreign policy. Few realize it has been had. India-China reconciliation is not in the interest of the west.
Modi is an extremely intelligent, realist and nationalistic person. He understands what is best for the country. Uses his head and not heart in dealing with situations. He knows that confronting china is not pragmatic and China too knows the importance of relations with India in geopolitical and economic terms. Good relations between the two great nations is of tantamount importance for world peace
@krish Nailed it bro.
Brilliant article.
@Krishna Better, you feel pity for yourself.
China is a calm ,mature and reasonable nation. China does not desire any war or any conflict. Indians grossly misunderstand the Chinese. However Chinese are very very tough in business and do not like to even give one paisa of benefit away. So key with Chinese is negotiate carefully keeping your own financial interests in mind first.
@Shubham : Well stated!
@Khanm Very well said
great piece..
@Khan That is an insult to Ms Jehangir
Enjoyed the article. Valid points no doubt.The policy should meet our necessity.
Good summary of recent news, but there is much more to what drives Indian policy and agenda for the future than what makes the news. For once I notice both an objective and a design and so far it is working!
Nothing damaged with China.
This is very balanced article India has to friendly with the neighbours.
India seems to be doing just fine.
@King yet half a billion people deficate in the open
Will she ever write something good about Modi government? I am afraid, not in her lifetime. She should understand that communism is an obsolete and forgone ideology.
"Chinese investors are stealthily pouring money into the country"
The article says that Chinese investors from the world over are steadily pouring money into the country"
After a dose of melancholia from Latha Jishu's article, this article should be a pick-up.
The truth is multilateralism and trade the way it existed during the period of the Chinese ascent in the decades past is fast disappearing.
The protectionism in the US is a hurdle for India as much as it is for China.
Both the countries recognize it and are taking steps to be close to each other and to counter the disruptions in the world trade.
Actually, it was exactly the opposite. India is the only country that stood up to China and now gets newfound respect from China and the world. India's policy with China has worked.
India is more superior because India is a democratic country. The prime minister is elected every 5 years.
Narendra has blood on his hand of the innocent Gujarati and Kashmiris.
Butcher of Gujarat!
Blood once spilled can't be washed away.
IndoPak Blood Brothers 4 Life!
@Zak we are progressing as Indians we don't need to seek medical visas to other countries we don't need to sell our country for investments our kids get an education who should be pitying oneself? Think if that is a possible action for you
@Wahab You just have to watch you tube discussion to see how effective Modi's policy has been in the last four years. Pakistanis look very worried. They feel Modi can do more harm to them than any US president.
@Saif Zulfiqar
In just 3 years investment in India has crossed US $ 200 Billion Dollars. And this is only official figure .If you consider the unofficial investment it could easily cross 500 Billion $.