FIRST, a disclaimer for the conspiracy theorists: I have never voted for the PML-N, PPP or the PTI. I am not on the ‘pay roll’ of any branch of state, NGO or shady agency. I am not a yellow, saffron or any shade of colour journalist. I have never been purposefully or accidentally invited to join the think tank of any political party. Sadly, I have not even been invited by the security establishment to preview some propaganda movie. Let it be simply said that the PTI, the Supreme Court and the security establishment are offering themselves up as prey of the democratic kill expected ahead.

There are three simple reasons for this; none of them are defeatist, moralistic or a result of people’s illiteracy or, US/Indian interference. The first is the ignorance of those who want to sell corruption as the obstacle to a utopian Pakistan when, in fact, inequality is the core problem. Corruption has not led to increased poverty. Numerous economic studies have pointed out that poverty had already globally halved from 44 per cent to 22pc in 2010.

The working classes are not squeamish purists but pragmatists, while the privileged classes practise nepotism and white-collar crime, and the middle classes aspire to be them. No one expects meritocracy or poverty alleviation in the absence of corrupt practices, so why bother voting for that non-starter?

On the other hand, inequality is a class not fiduciary issue. To end inequality, class differences, not corruption, must be reduced, Redistribution of resources and assets cannot happen as long as Pakistan is a clientist military state, or under the current property regime. The PTI and superior courts wouldn’t be daring enough to dismantle the political economy that sustains the military or elite classes. The PML-N does not threaten to abandon its rentier supporters but does promise considerable propriety change for its voters ie improving, developing and expanding the base of opportunities for Pakistanis in a neoliberal world order.

The majority of Pakistanis vote to survive.

A second reason we’re staring into the eye of the tiger, as the PPP will tell you, is that victimhood is an invaluable commodity. Many say that by appearing to behave as unelected saviour, the judiciary is being seen as a competitor for the people’s adulation and, however illogical, viewed as a beneficiary of Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification. South Asian voters love victims and, more importantly, they vote for those who survive and fight back. They even vote for the heirs of those who don’t. Morality quickly dies at the ballot box. Voters can measure who will do the job, who will pay the rent to get it done and at what price. Sadly for Imran Khan, the myth of the spiritual vote is fallacious; no one votes for a poor, unpropertied pir. The opposition’s desperate bid to divert attention from its own abysmal record of governance has only elevated the PML-N’s promise in other provinces.

Thirdly, the PML-N has pulled the rug from under the acclaimed liberal parties. The induction of women in lead and decision-making positions in the Punjab cabinet and on commissions is incomparable with other provinces. Marvi Memon’s direction to the Benazir Income Support Programme and its effect on nutrition, agency and voice for women puts its PPP founders to shame. The same holds for Ayesha Raza as lead on polio eradication which is not even a Punjab-centric concern.

Punjab has passed more laws, infrastructural support and introduced support mechanisms for some fairly radical measures to empower women in marriage and ownership of resources. Nawaz Sharif has been vocal against the attacks on Ahmedi places of worship, in celebrating the rights of religious minorities and marking Diwali and Christmas in a country that has turned viciously bigoted.

There is the overarching tussle marking the civil-military face-off over the last four years. An honest assessment of the impact of this on democratic norms has bypassed the philosophical attention of our chief justice and benefited from the PTI’s complicit silence.

There are legitimate concerns that counter the above ie CPEC’s lack of transparency, environmental costs of mass transit systems, and the conservative, sexist and racist elements that pop up within PML-N ranks. These are not causes that should be endorsed. However, the absence of realistic, imaginative alternatives and inconsistencies amongst those who oppose these, including civil society activists, make a PML-N electoral win inevitable. The majority of Pakistanis don’t vote for ‘audacity’ or hope or idealism or pathways to heaven. They vote to survive and to avail themselves of the patronage of the immediate. The metanarrative cry of ‘corruption’ is a comic fig leaf for the inability and unwillingness to practise real politics. It is also not the job of the judiciary or military to act as governments, especially when their own houses are a mess.

The writer is author of Faith and Feminism in Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, March 6th, 2018