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THE PML-N — this version of it — is done. To win re-election from here would be a spectacular, historic, mind-boggling victory.
A victory so spectacular, historic and mind-boggling that it would turn on its head everything anyone knows about Pakistan, politics and civ-mil.
Even if it could happen, it will not be allowed to happen.
But the horrifying end to the three-week crisis revealed a determination to see the end of Nawaz that he either cannot understand or does not want to.
The rest of us, though, need to try and figure out what Nawaz may be up to.
We’re dealing with what Nawaz may think he can get away with, not what’s the best government for the rest of us.
The parliamentary maths has already swung against the PML-N. The census created two options: increase the size of parliament or rearrange the provinces’ shares.
The first — more National Assembly seats — may have given the PML-N something new to play with, but both options had the same problem: Punjab’s share of the population has dropped.
A few back-of-the-envelope calculations reveal the problem. Right now, there are 272 directly elected seats in the NA, so to form a government and become PM you need 137.
(There are 342 seats in the National Assembly, but the 60 women and 10 non-Muslim seats are proportionally appointed to parties that win general, directly elected seats.)
Of the 272 seats, 148 are from Punjab, 150 if you include Islamabad. So for a Punjab-based party to win, it needs 137 of 150 — 91 per cent of Punjab’s seats.
In reality, it’s a little easier for the PML-N because most of the 12 Fata MNAs and the 14 Balochistan MNAs usually line up with whoever is in power.
Plus, there’s a smattering of seats in Sindh to be picked up and a bunch in the PML-N strongholds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
But if not 90-plus per cent, it’s still in the 80-85pc range of Punjab seats that the PML-N will need to win.
The PML-N, though, is weaker in south Punjab, which has roughly a quarter of Punjab’s directly elected seats, so the N-League really still needs 90-95pc of the seats in central and northern Punjab.
If the maths is tedious, it’ll be over quickly.
Here’s the problem. The current parliament is based on Punjab’s roughly 55pc share of the population. The new census has dropped it to under 53pc.
That two per cent may not seem much, but it’s taken the PML-N’s winning equation into stupidly unreal territory.
Courageously, like it did with the NFC, Punjab has agreed to take a hit to its seat share. And, thankfully, parliament has preferred not to increase the seat count.
What that all adds up to is seven fewer seats for Punjab, six if you include the gain for Islamabad. In the same 272 NA directly elected seats.
If 137/150 was eye-watering, 137/144 is in stupidly unreal territory.
So what is Nawaz playing at?
It’s possible to guess. He’s banking on the PML-N hanging on to the largest parliamentary party status, even if it means dipping below a majority.
A minority government, basically. Because whoever wins the highest number of seats in parliament will lead the next government.
It may be mathematically possible for No 2 and No 3 to form a coalition, but politically it wouldn’t work. You can’t shut out No 1 and hope for longevity or stability.
So No 1 will have two options: find independent and coalition partners to get to 137 or try and go it alone.
There are really only two hurdles to a minority government: the first job of a new National Assembly is to elect a speaker and the second to elect a PM.
The first can be overcome by offering the deputy speaker slot to another party or group and the second problem by a one-time deal with whomever to win the PM vote.
After that, the template is already there: the Senate for the last decade. No party has had a majority in the upper house in these two terms of parliament.
The PPP came closest and the PML-N will surge in March, but it’s effectively been a minority government in the upper house.
And yet, we’ve had five constitutional amendments — needing a two-thirds majority — and a bunch of legislation passed.
The only thing stopping a minority government from existing in the National Assembly is someone with the audacity to try the Senate model in the NA.
With the PML-N, it’s not like Nawaz has a huge legislative agenda anyway. And even in this most bitterly divided current parliament when push has come to shove, legislation has moved through a minority-government Senate.
Of course, a minority government is a ridiculous idea with all sorts of problems that are easy to see and others that will probably manifest themselves.
But we’re dealing with what Nawaz may think he can get away with, not what’s the best government for the rest of us.
So, get to March and build up an advantage in the Senate, even if it’s short of a majority, and then get to August and aim to be the largest party in the next NA, even if it’s less than a majority.
This version of the PML-N is done. Getting 137/144 in Punjab is an absurdity. But a minority government in a fractured National Assembly where no one has a majority?
It’s worth a shot. So on Nawaz is plodding. And on the rest of us must suffer.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, December 3rd, 2017
Comments (21) Closed
why is there a determination to see end of Nawaz
Mujeeb won 160 seats of a house of 300.
Yahya said no.
End of story.
You may be attributing more intricate backroom planning to this than there is. If the math were really unsettling, Punjab wouldn't have "courageously" conceded its seat share.
Come election day, PML-N henchmen, like those of most large parties, will brute-force their way to the ballot and coax votes out of the undecided majority, or any weaklings in. This happens wherever there is a weak spot, Sindh, Punjab, wherever, without much regard to the mathematics of it.
Unfortunately once an election has been won, many analysts will say it was always meant to be, and the close, miraculous way it was won will go forgotten.
Some how one cannot help thinking that Pakistanis must really be mad if they allow anybody from the Sharif clan to move anywhere near provincial or National Assemblies.
Wonders of Numbers....
Basically Nawaz is driven by self interest and doesn't give two hoots about the country. What a sad mafia this man is. I hope he is punished for all this wrong doings. Amern
A minority govt. ( be it's PMLN or PTI) is the worst outcome for a parliamentary system. They will work always under the fear of losing grip and under immense pressure from coalition partners (who typically just line up their pockets in response to be partners in govt. ).I hope at some point we will move to presidential system
Thank you for at least trying to answer a question that has been agitating my mind for a few weeks now.
Actually its not 137/144.As you said yourself,there are the 12 FATA and 16 Balochistan seats.You can expect like 20 of those to be with you if you are the largest party,even if the margin is not that great.Also there are some PMLn seats in kpk and there alliance with JUI-F might say intact.Thats about 10 more.Without even adding the seats for grabs in a disgruntled sindh,You get about 30-35 seats from outside Punjab.So in punjab you would only need about a 100/137.Which isnt such huge odds for them.So Nawaz IS coming back.The question is weather alone or in a coalition.And this time,he might actually have a peaceful time,Considering that all that could have been done against him have already been exhausted.The economy would be in great shape due to Cpec and loadshedding would be down to acceptable levels if not ended (atleast in high recovery regions).The only challenge would be takling the Current account deficit.Thats my two cents.
Is this math based on the assumption that a voter's salvation is through repentance instead of the ballot box?
This assumption is feeble in the face of expanded choices, we definitely have more candidates to challenge the status quo. The final choice resides with the median voter. Let us decide and you can keep your assumptions.
Pertinent analysis
So what is wrong? PML(N) most likely will form the next government in association with another party. PTI will never be at the seat of government whatever politics they play. They have proved to be too naïve in politics and by antagonizing all other political parties except some radical elements and imprudent half literates and some literates and with only one point agenda they have no chance to win large seats.
I am not impressed by your analysis. This kind of analysis is a wild guess with no sense. Same can be said for PTI.
Good analysis.
An excellent analysis, wake up Pakistan.
Brilliant writing. No runaround. Straight to the point of what ns is up to.
Thanks!
Great analysis.
Why is majority our public so 'bent' on betting on the wrong horse in the shape of PML-N knowing fully well they have along with PPP and MQM robbed the nation not just in monetary terms but destroyed the well being of the future of this generation for years to come!
In terms of deliverance PML-N has left far behind all her competitors. They should win the next GE.
That is his basic right! He is going to win.
If you do not introduce serious reforms in the electoral system as well as in the system of the government; prior to next national election, we are bound to see the same group of corrupt being elected thus prolonging the misery of public for another five years. Anyway, we should adopt the presidential system which suits our situation and our nature. Presidential system shall simplify law making but it will also significantly reduce public expenses.