WHILE the south-west monsoon is finally coming to an end, millions of people in several states across India face the prospects of a massive drought that threatens their livelihood.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), cumulative rainfall in the country as a whole — between June 1 and September 6 — has been five per cent below long period average (LPA). Nearly 60pc of India has got substantially less rainfall as compared to the past.

This is in stark contrast to the earlier prediction of a normal monsoon. While in its initial forecast in April, the IMD had said the country would receive rainfall of 96pc of the LPA, it revised this in June to 98pc.

Except for the northeast, which has not witnessed any change in rainfall (of about 1,205 mm), the remaining three regions — northwest, central India and south peninsula — have seen deficiencies ranging between four and eight per cent.

Central India has been the worst hit, with a deficiency of eight per cent. The IMD had predicted that central India would get 100pc of the LPA, but it has received just 92pc of the monsoon season rainfall of 844.5 mm.

Last week, the National Agriculture and Drought Assessment System (Nadams) report by the Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre, New Delhi, an agriculture ministry department, warned that 225 districts (of more than 700 in the country) could face a drought. These districts are located in 17 ‘agriculturally important states’ of the country.

The states that suffered the most include Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, three of the most agriculturally-rich ones in India. Other states that have been hit badly by the drought include Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

The worst-hit states of Maharashtra, UP and Punjab have already announced farm loan waiver schemes and are also facing a financial crisis. States such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh — considered to be the food bowl of India and accounting for about half the country’s food production — have got 35pc less rainfall than the LTA.

While the central and state governments do not fear any major drop in agricultural production or supply of food grains, pulses and vegetables, analysts are worried that the coming months could see the unfolding of a food crisis.

And many of the states that have been impacted by the drought are hankering for more funds from the centre, even as farmers have launched agitations. In Madhya Pradesh, which has received about 30pc less rain, some regions have witnessed rainfall deficiency of almost 60pc.

There have been large scale protests from farmers in states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu in recent weeks. In fact, hundreds of farmers from Tamil Nadu have been protesting near Jantar Mantar in Delhi for the past few weeks, demanding a drought relief package of Rs400 billion for the state, besides crop insurance and the setting up of a management board for the Cauvery river.

FOR the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, these are worrying issues. Adding to the government’s woes, the latest figures relating to the economy indicate that GDP grew by just 5.7pc (year-on-year) during the first quarter (April-June) of the fiscal. This was also the slowest growth rate since the NDA came to power in May 2014.

While the central and state governments do not fear any major drop in agricultural production or supply, analysts are worried that the coming months could see the unfolding of a food crisis

The first quarter of 2016-17 had seen GDP expand by 7.9pc, on the back of a massive 9.1pc growth in the January-March 2016 quarter.

While the manufacturing sector grew by a meagre 1.2pc (as against 10.7pc in the corresponding quarter in the previous fiscal), the financial, insurance, real estate and professional services sector expanded by just 6.4pc, down from 9.4pc a year ago.

The relatively lower growth rate has been attributed to the slowdown caused by the demonetisation of the Indian rupee and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax.

The NDA government is meanwhile trying to revive some projects that have been snared in controversies for decades, and which should help ease drought conditions in many parts of the country.

Road transport and Water Resources Minister, Nitin Gadkari, last week set a three-month deadline to start river-interlinking projects. The first phase would see three such projects in Madhya Pradesh-Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Maharashtra-Gujarat being taken up.

According to Gadkari, the government would seek different ways to raise the Rs350bn needed for the first phase of the project. Gadkari believes that interlinking rivers — especially those that get flooded with the rains and melting snows — is the only alternative to tackle the drought-prone regions in the country.

The government’s proposed national river linking project envisages the transfer of almost 175bn cubic metres of water through a 15,000-km-long canal network.

The project hopes to link nearly 60 rivers, construction of dams, canals and other infrastructure to not only prevent floods, but also to end droughts in many parts of the country.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is believed to be personally directing forward movement of the long-delayed project, which would see the government invest nearly a hundred billion dollars in it.

The project envisages diversion of water-surplus rivers by building 30 canals, and 3,000 large and small reservoirs, which could also generate nearly 35 gigwatt of hydropower.

It plans three major inter-links — a northern Himalayan rivers inter-link, a southern peninsular link and an intra-state link of rivers.

While the ambitious project has been languishing for years, it needs a powerful push now to ensure that annual droughts will be avoided in the future.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 18th, 2017