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THE excitement is dismaying. Trump’s bluster didn’t move the needle much because everyone’s figured out that the Americans aren’t going to threaten their way to a new reality in Afghanistan or Pakistan.
But when China and Russia add their voice, it’s new and interesting. These guys don’t care about woolly notions of peace and democracy. They believe in strength; finding it, rewarding it and getting it to do things for them.
And here they are, adding their voices to the right side of the defining question of modern Pakistan. The question is simple, the answer anything but:
What will make them listen?
Short of winning Kashmir and grabbing Afghanistan. What will make them — the boys — listen? Listen preferably to the logic of what’s right. Listen to the logic of what’s good for Pakistan. Or listen simply to the logic of power.
The excitement is dismaying.
Because hope in the effect of chastening words by China and Russia is miserable recognition that they will not listen to us, you and me, the ordinary people of Pakistan.
Our hopes, our aspirations, our idea of what this country should be are permanently subordinate to an institution’s definition of the national interest.
But no point getting hung up on that. What is, is and what will be, will be. If their, the institution’s, good is not our good, then whatever works to get the two to align. Even if that means China and Russia.
Can it work though?
The possibility is premised on two notions: that Pakistan needs, or maybe craves, their, especially China’s, approval; and that China and Russia are implacably and irreversibly opposed to jihad.
When China and Russia add their voice, it’s new and interesting. These guys don’t care about woolly notions of peace and democracy.
It makes a kind of sense. States by definition are not fans of non-states. They may use, facilitate and direct them on occasion, but a strong state can’t comfortably coexist with non-states, especially in the same physical space and double especially in the homeland itself.
Triply, if you’re China or Russia.
So the combination of Pakistan’s friendship with and proximity to China and aspirations for friendship with and relative proximity to Russia suggest that what America could not coerce or bribe its way to, the China-Russia nexus may.
The excitement is dismaying.
The calculation is straightforward enough: at what point will the cost of hanging on to the anti-Afghan and anti-India jihadis exceed the benefits that the boys perceive?
For the sake of the excitement, let’s assume the Chinese and Russians are willing to eventually raise the cost on Pakistan. In terms of positive incentives — rewards — that China in particular could withhold.
Or pressure from the rest of the outside world that China may hesitate to shield us from. Or, in the fantasy scenario, direct pressure that China and Russia may bring to bear eventually.
Wouldn’t Pakistan respond in the right way then?
Maybe. But maybe definitely not. The problem with focusing on escalating costs that the outside world can impose on us is that it avoids — for good, obvious reasons — an honest conversation about what the jihadis mean to us.
That’s the reason the excitement is dismaying.
The standard argument goes something like this. First, Zia arrived out of nowhere and screwed it up for all of us. Then the Cold War went hot in our backyard and we ended up doing stupid things.
But just as were done doing stupid things in Afghanistan, the Indians mucked about in Kashmir and that gave us another idea.
So when Afghanistan became a mess again, because doing stupid stuff there had worked before and by now we were afraid of Indian retaliation, we did more stupid stuff.
Eventually, we were consumed by the very fires we had lit, before we woke up and waged a great internal war that has won us a hard-fought peace and stability.
Accidental, unwilling, not our fault, instrumentalist, understandable, never really ideological — it’s a good story. But parse its foundations.
The excitement is dismaying.
Start with the original sinner: Zia. If Zia had not existed, can we be sure a Zia would never exist? And, perhaps more relevantly, because Zia did exist what has that done for the possibility of another Zia existing?
If that’s troubling and esoteric, switch to the other end of the tale. The argument is that a decade of fighting jihadis will have made us realise that there’s an inevitability to all of them turning on us, so dismantling has to happen before.
But there’s something counterintuitive about war and fighting: the ones who’ve done it the most aren’t necessarily eager for more.
The idea that the experience with the TTP will translate into pre-emptive action against the rest may be less realistic than the possibility the experience with the TTP will be repeated.
Years of pursuing peace until the always inevitable fight becomes bigger, messier and uglier.
Or stick to the in-between portions of the story. After we arrived, accidentally or however, at the realisation that stupid stuff works, we have to admit — it really works.
For proof, just look at how it makes India and Afghanistan howl.
Mumbai matches, maybe dwarfs, Kargil in Indian reaction points. Non-states obsess Afghanistan to the point, seemingly, of insanity. LeT and Jaish loom larger in the Indian imagination than Pakistani nukes.
So when Russia and China add their voice, it is new and interesting.
But before we can figure out how much — if at all — they are willing to raise the cost on us for shielding our jihadis, we need to know exactly what the jihadis are worth to us.
The excitement is dismaying.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2017
Comments (71) Closed
A country's strength in the global arena is determined by its economic strength and soft power. Lately our national fantasy has been we are in some kind of China-Russia-Pakistan axis against US and India. That fantasy has collapsed with the BRICS statement. Why not just focus on people's welfare, jobs and economic growth instead of trying constantly to punch above our weight?
Cyril Almeida you are unbelievable! You attack all quite softly and directly. WORLD LOVES YOU FOR YOUR WORK!
I wish Pakistan rewards you by becoming a successful nation!
Brave and highly courageous article Cyril.....
I am fan of Cyril's thoughts and clear intentions of adoptation of right policies someday with consistent messages without offending most powerfuls. Among a few writers with extra-ordinary courage and clarity of purpose.
That's something greater to think about...
A super analysis indeed. But may I add : May be its not about ignoring peoples' aspiration, hopes. dreams or any kind of logic or reason, or even giving nightmares to iNdians and Afghans or making other powers scratch their hair on their heads. May be doing the stupid stuff is about something convulutedly positive, like the instututional belief all along since inception that doing the stupid stuff relentlessly and patiently is the sole ticket to country's becoming a regional power or more.We must remeber that blind ambition has no limits, brooks no obstacles...Now that excitement is really dismaying!
You spot on.
You are god gifted the art of crafting very lucid and shiny phrases while describing.
God bless you.
This is some thing ridiculous for our foreign office and PMLN government on the foreign policy front. India has been able to convince world that Pakistan is the rout cause of all Evils and our government could not even draw the world attention toward the atrocities being inflicted in kashmir.... what a pity. Kashmir is a world recognized problem. All we were supposed to do was to divulge it. PMLN is the worst party in Pakistan whose attention is only to weaken the state institution, disseminate corruption into society and make fool the Pakistani Nation....... May GOD help us because we don't know who we are voting for.............
Need to redefine what's the national interest , to make the things simple , can we say that it is the interest of 200 million people or a vast majority's interest is they can live a good life ( peace, joy, happiness, access to education, clean water, energy, good governance with decent income level, and respect in the country and a positive image abroad ) anything that promote these goals is a broader national interest and all government institutions try to achieve these goals.
I absolutely love the choice of words and writing skills of Cyril. This article is written at a similarly high level although the repeat of a particular phrase was a slight put off. That being said, I am amazed that he writes as he does as it takes courage to do so especially regarding the certain insinuations that are best left unsaid. Great job and keep them coming.
Assumption of Russia is with us itself is insane. Russia was always closer to India and will be closer to India. They have very good relationship.
Don't be too exited, we have been there before, nothing will change, nothing can change, snakes have become bigger than the Dragon also . They are not interested in bear hugs anymore.
Powerful stuff Cyril!!! Why can't we all just get along?
Great article, as always. Summarising and reconciling the various disparities, inputs and information into a broad and accurate model of how things stand. I have been saying it to my friends that the Chinese intervention in Pakistan through CPEC and 'friendship' higher than the himalayas is a task assigned to China to bring sanity to the Af-Pak area. You hold the purse strings, you hold the power - the Chinese have been delegated this responsibility by the rest of the world it seems
Kashmir issue did not stop India from becoming the 6th largest economy and the fastest one too. It did not stop India from becoming part of elite G20 and BRICS. On the other hand because of Kashmir, you became weak in many ways. It is time for you to revisit your policies.
Nice piece of relevant discussion. Eventually writing on wall will be understood, irrespective of how long it is deliberately ignored, reason cited that we do not understand this script and what it means, while an instant Google translate global world stares in our faces. A globally connected and related world is a universal truth now for all countries; impossible to ignore, except if one keeps pretending to be short sighted or blind risking to become a laughing stock in world community and left behind.
Sensible article as always. Is anyone listening?
Cyril Almeida is one-of-a-kind. Writing of such caliber does not come easy, even to someone as obviously gifted as he is. Anyone who doubts the integrity or efficacy of journalism should read Cyril and realize that journalism is in good hands, as long as they are Cyril's.
Every word of this article is important for our future concerns.It reminds me a verse from Munir Niazy where he says, answer to my question was in my question.
You know they will not listen to any of this. Even if there are sanctions against Pakistan, their lives are going to be comfortable with guaranteed plots, servants and cars. They might just listen if the Western countries ban travel, visa and settlement for them and their kids though. Oh, the irony of it.
Confused..
Are we set to become another North Korea!
Absolutely brilliant! Another winner penned by Cyril! I have been rendered speechless by the sagacity of the write up! Succinct and in depth analysis of a malaise that has got so deeply incorporated in the overall narrative , that it seems almost impossible to find a way out! But yes your voice is a ray of light out of this total darkness! May peace prevail! Inshaallah!
Cyril, you scored a perfect ten. Pakistan's neighbours are anxiously awaiting the change in country's foreign policy which would usher era of peace in the entire region.
Excitement is dismayin but reading you is always encouraging excitement Cyril. Love from across the border.
Very well written and a sarcastic eyeopener but very difficult for the Pakistanis to understand. Cyril please write something that gets into the thick brass hats of Pakistan which are empty inside. But if you do that you will again be in trouble when someone asked about the eggs being laid by the non states. Thanks for a thought provoking article provided the boys have capacity to think about the welfare of Pakistan.
exactly,very well said
"Our hopes, our aspirations, our idea of what this country should be are permanently subordinate to an institution’s definition of the national interest."
Sir, you're too correct and too honest to be safe. My advice to you and Dawn; take care...
Running in circle and winning race! More lies to cover previous lies. Truth is key to get out of whirlpool. Honesty is best policy; we are yet to adopt as a national stance. Those who were intelligent still are adamant that others are not that intelligent. Race is on; time is winning.
Simply honest and dangersly brave.
excitement is dismaying says it all
As a neutral observer I do not think either Russia or China can do anything about Trump's statements. Remember that Trumps statement is an expression of opinions are already expressed by their defense chiefs. Russia and China are acutely aware of Pakistan's policies and it is just that they are observing silence that is misinterpreted by Pakistan as being supportive of its ill conceived policies. If the so called CPEC and other Chinese activities in Pakistan or Afghanistan need to succeed peace must prevail. US is not getting out of Afghanistan and can set an agenda for the rest as the US happens to set the economic agendas for the rest.
Just another beautiful article from Cyril ( and from Dawn of-course). The question of-course is ( which was asked to Jyn Erso in Rogue One finale by her close friend) " Is anyone listening?" and her optimistic answer was " I do". I hope there is some one listening. There are no "good" terrorists and "bad" terrorists. Everything can be worked out in peace. West Bank has an annual growth rate of 5% GDP, Gaza strip is at -22%. Remove violence, everything falls into place.
Please say something about corruption too!
@Mirza Beg Agreed. South Asia is the home to the largest number of poor, illiterate and semi literate people who live in pitiable conditions and rarely get proper healthcare. It is time all countries of the South Asia region realize this and divert the funds spend on military and weapons to education and healthcare.
Great article... Hats off !!!!
Brilliant piece once again by Cyril.
But will they listen is the big question. It is well established fact that they would get nudged into some sort of action only when the get it from the position of power. Today it is China .... you never know what happens after 20 years down the timeline when possibly India aquires that status......woukd be very interesting to watch.
Could a person be more accurate about Pakistan's situation than in the following words: "Our hopes, our aspirations, our idea of what this country should be are permanently subordinate to an institution’s definition of the national interest."
@Amit absolutely true
Deep...Very deep. Almost philosophical.
The same thoughts are in my mind that you have raised in your column. How I pray that we finally break the shackles that are holding us back, that THEY see the light and let us free. Let's pray together keeping our fingers crossed.
I wish that Pakistan becomes a progressive and settled state. But getting the clue from your writting and what we think about Pak in India is like a situation where the "pigeon shuts its eyes on seeing a cat"until it gets pounced upon by the cat. Hope the leaders better explain the reality to ordinary Pak citizens.
Refreshingly honest.
Brilliant and Brave as always - salute to you Cyril Almeida!
It is the time of reckoning for Pakistan where its neighbours and rest of the world want Pakistan to change its faulty foreign policy. The BRICS Summit which included Pakistan's best friends have squarely put the ball in Pakistan's court to make necessary changes in its foreign policy. The write up is worth in gold gives a befitting message that the so called assets who no longer serves national interests should be abandoned.
Yet another blow to right wing ruling party when it is going to deal with left is that left never hesitates to point out loopholes and highlighting the concerned area of responsibility. So lets hope this will pinch the fouly asleep state and government and make them realize the tick tick of the clock
As always, the writer has written a wonderful article. Artistic, emotional and thought provoking too.
@Harmony-1© Your question regarding corruption is silly - like telling the doctor "what about my sprain in ankle", when the doctor is trying to tell you are too obese and will have a heart attack.
This is so irresponsible to deflect the problem and talk about something inconsequential - perhaps just like you and most pakistanis.
I wanted to cry after reading:
"our hopes, our aspirations, our idea of what this country should be are permanently subordinate to an institution's definition of the national interest."
The excitement is really dismaying after reading this article , Great Effort
@Mirza Beg nice conclusion. We should strengthen our economy,agriculture,textile,psx,health,education,defence etc. In this way our GDP will grow up then we will be member of brics and world will respect our opinion
Great and logical analysis of future scenario , but "Beggars are not the chooser" in view of foreign policy and divided corrupt politicians on personal and petty issues cannot overcome the only united , well knitted and completely transform persons on national institution , and now after Iftikar Chaudry the 3rd Pillar also stand united for his distinctive role
@SL With demonetisation behind and 65% population below the age of 35 years, inflation controlled,double digit GDP growth in India is going to be a distinct reality.Kashmir problem will as in past 70 years may either subside or will disappear.
Well done. You are a credit to our neighbours. As you can see from their comments, they're proud of you.
My enemies friend, is not my friend.
@Trumpet
The question is, are you? And why?
Not everybody can understand the truth, even a lesser number can say the truth and even lesser number can accept and act according to the truth.
It is in their(Russia & China) interest and in the interest of global piece that they put pressure on Pak, to eschew the non-stats.. this is just madness.. as any miscalculated strike by non-states on India, can endanger the existence of Pak..
Instead its time to look for alleviation of illiteracy, poverty & disease for its millions and realization of the dream they were promised before the creation of Pak..
"Eventually, we were consumed by the very fires we had lit, before we woke up and waged a great internal war that has won us a hard-fought peace and stability.:
well said Cyril
@Blue Knight "It is in their(Russia & China) interest and in the interest of global piece that they put pressure on Pak," It looks like our ruling political elite cannot find any friend anywhere. Does it mean they will change themselves or they will be changed? Interesting time ahead.
What astonishes me is this man's obsession with Pakistan Army and huge admiration he draws from our well wishers from across the border. Is there a coincidence?
@Hanif "can we say that it is the interest of 200 million people or a vast majority's interest is they can live a good life" If you look how these 200m elect, it seems that they want a good life for their leaders in London, Dubai, and are willing to pay their bills as well. And seem to be happy in continuing to do so.
Cyril I just want to say, my faith in humanity gets restored by reading you. Let's zoom out a little bit from the tragedy subcontinent is. In a society where fanatics has the power, there exists a human , a micro minority, a has gained the power to show the mirror to the most powerful institution of that society. Is it not beautiful that people's like Cyril exists from Saudi Arabia to Texas,they may not be very powerful or influential, but isn't there mere existence is a reason to celebrate ??????
The status and power of a nation are determined by -good economic growth, rising incomes, better socio economic indicators, good education, a responsive health care system, political and social stability and the mantra of the 21st-century globalisation - adoption of inclusiveness and liberal values.
An uniformed institution which consumes massive resources and produces nothing cannot hope to put a country on track?
@Anil you wish kashmir will go into oblivion but it will not --india cant even provide toilets to 65% of its populace what GDP you talk about--have you seen the trains running with people on roofs and millions sleeping on side walks in cities ---what you state is called delusion and its a disease
@Shahid totally agree....
Hats off! You are meaning of Journalism!!
Dear Mr. Almeida. I was reading your article and left in the Middle. I think the language should be straight and simple. It looks like that some one trying to impress with words and Writing a story or some kind of novel. I think it should be so simple that even people with limited command of language Should be able to read and that is the beauty of good writing. I do not want any comments from people,keep it to yourself. Regards
Nice Article Cyril, Be safe, Historically the whites have divided people so they can fight and the whites will sell their arms. The only solution to this is to eliminate borders and have a common union if the European could do it after fighting 2 world wars. So can Asia. But do the Politicians have the vision to do this. so we can continue to fight for Kashmir for next 10 centuries and make the American and European Rich .
Todays scenerio war will never take place. Why un necessarily create a hype and waste limited resources.Pakistans problem is the non state actors roaming and operating freely.
Nice Article Cyril, mess started from years ,will not be solved in short time, but wish someone noteing ur points. Miracle can not happen in one night, but write direction & time come to improve situation...
@brr - "This is so irresponsible to deflect the problem and talk about something inconsequential - perhaps just like you and most pakistanis."
Your anti "pakistanis" [Pakistanis] stance is always loud and clear.