IN this roller-coaster world, it’s difficult to discern patterns of conduct, to say with certainty that things are getting better or worse.

Economists have GDP levels and growth rates to back up their assessment of economies. The rest of us look at other things: election results, opinion polls, the public mood, the conduct of politicians, consumers, and businesses, the drivers of war and conflict as well as the causes that bring people together.

It’s not rocket science — and analysts can get things very wrong. Has populism in Europe been defeated? Will there be a Brexit — and if there is one, will it soft or hard? Will Donald Trump’s legal problems ever come to an end? How long can the war in Syria go on? How will the Saudi-Iranian competition impact on the Middle East and the world?

Only a fool would try to answer those questions. But six months into 2017 is as good a time as any to try and capture some of the key vibes of a world in flux — and perhaps even seek responses.

Certainly, geopolitical competition and rivalry — among nations, people, banks, businesses and just about everyone else — continues to tear us apart. But, there is also a new resilience in the system and in people. Shocks happen, we are shaken, and then we bounce back. And if we don’t like what is happening, we resist and make sure our voices are heard. Unfortunately, however, we also resist change.

First, rivalry. There is nothing new about global tensions over competing territorial claims including in the South China Sea, the Middle East as a battleground of global competition among factions within states, between religious groups, rivalry among so-called “Great Powers” America and China and between Russia and the West.

But even as they compete and challenge each other, intelligent rivals and competitors are trying to work together to avoid an open conflict. This is the case of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) which are working with China on a code of conduct to manage conflicting claims in the South China Sea. India and Pakistan are more or less managing their relationship. This is not the case, however, in the conflict-racked Middle East where the Saudi-led boycott of Qatar is another example of nasty rivalry in the Arab world.

Second, resilience which is perhaps the buzzword of the 21st century. That’s not surprising given the rapid-fire shocks which continue to destabilise many parts of the world. Development experts are trying to build resilient societies in fragile nations, disaster specialists want resilience built into national policies to reduce disaster risks and people across the world are showing commendable resilience even as they face terrorism and devastating violence.

Resilience is also the name of the game for refugees and migrants as they seek shelter and better lives in countries which are not their own.

And the European Union has shown remarkable strength and resilience in the face of the populist threat which seemed on the verge of engulfing key nations within the bloc.

Despite being shaken by Brexit, the venomous campaigns led by populists in France and the Netherlands, anti-EU forces have been on the back foot in those two countries but also in Austria and Germany. In Britain, the electorate appears to have voted against a harsh divorce from the EU. As Donald Tusk, the EU Council President, said recently: “We are slowly turning the corner.”

He added: “Paradoxically, the tough challenges of the recent months have made us more united than before.”

For many, new French President Emmanuel Macron embodies this confident new Europe. But Europe’s East-West divisions have not gone away as shown recently by the European Commission’s decision to start legal proceedings against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic over their refusal to take in refugees.

Which brings us to “resistance” whether it’s in the US where courts, journalists and ordinary people are putting up a strong — and often successful — fight against some of the crazier actions and policies of the American president or in China, Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia and other states where courageous men and women are standing up for their rights even in the face of detention and worse.

Even as the world changes, however, many continue to resist the inevitable transformation taking place around us. Disruption caused by new technologies, the existence of multi-ethnic, multi-cultural societies and social change caused by the emancipation and empowerment of women cannot be resisted for long, however. Sometimes it’s best just to stop resisting.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, June 24th, 2017