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THE predictable has happened, but now comes the unpredictable part: what next? Forget the law, let’s get to the politics of it.
At least the timeline is clear.
Thirty days to the month of switching off followed by Eid. Sixty days to a report that can’t be done. In between an election-year budget session.
The court may have just handed Nawaz a tool to prise away a part of the PTI’s core.
Already, an early start to summer — usually four or five months long, this year threatening an agonising six. In a year, a general election and before that, in 10 months or so, a Senate election.
Busy like hell.
So, who’d you rather be: Nawaz or Imran? Get out your crystal ball and let’s indulge in Pakistan’s favourite sport: politics.
Start with Nawaz, the clear winner this week. Winner because he still has his job; winner because Maryam has emerged unscathed; and winner because his fate is in his own hands now.
But winner mostly because this will have gone down well with the base — and possibly, ominously, beyond.
Forget the silliness of a 2-3 split and the faux-literary opening paragraphs. In the world of politics, a very different accounting applies.
And this is it: Nawaz had no clue Panama would happen; he couldn’t have anticipated the scrutiny; he didn’t really want this probe; the Isloo lockdown threat and a CJP looking to legacy on his way out made the hearings happen.
The hearings were held in a hostile environment, daily political screeds outside and withering remarks inside; the N-League looked shaken and the Sharif lawyers uncertain.
Then came a long, rumour-filled and conspiracy-fuelled wait for a verdict; Nawaz was going, going, gone. And yet, here he is, still among us, still PM.
The whole damn episode, instead of bringing him down, may have bullet-proofed him electorally. Because politically there are really only two options.
Either Nawaz is clean or he’s got the establishment on his side. And either of those options may as well be electoral gold for Nawaz.
If you’re thinking you’ll eat your hat if Nawaz is clean, save yourself a perfectly decent hat. Clean electorally is the chap who isn’t stupid or unfortunate enough to get caught.
With the N-League base, Nawaz stands vindicated. Nothing, not the combined hostility of the opposition, media and possibly the judiciary, was able to prove a single thing against him.
The flip side of believing the judicial process is flawed, is believing that the judicial process can be rigged.
For the N-League base, surely, Nawaz surviving by the narrowest of margins is Nawaz surviving the most vicious of attacks.
If your enemies can’t slay you, even when they gang up, there’s a leader worth supporting.
The base is secure.
More ominous is the potential effect beyond. The core of the PTI is the anti-corruption, urban cohort. If the census/constituency demarcation process delivers on time, the PTI core’s electoral footprint will grow.
The court may have just handed Nawaz a tool to prise away a part of the PTI’s core.
Think of it this way. In 2013, if you hated Zardari and Nawaz’s corruption and felt Imran may deliver, you’d have voted PTI.
The next time round, if after the greatest scrutiny in the history of politics, nothing is proven against Nawaz; if the N-League has delivered reasonably on its 2013 electoral promises; and if you’ve tired of Imran’s single-issue politics — would you maybe give Nawaz another look?
That’s all Nawaz needs — a second look.
And just maybe — and surely inadvertently — the court itself has buttressed the case for some PTI voters giving Nawaz a second look with this business of bringing the boys in.
If Nawaz survives the JIT, it would be the triple crown. First, the international dimension, the Panama Papers, ended up proving nothing.
Now, the Supreme Court itself, the highest court in the land, after months and months of the most intense scrutiny, has found nothing.
Next, if an investigation that ropes in the boys themselves ends up proving nothing definitive — by God, who the hell wouldn’t want to be Nawaz?
And if you go with the other option, that Nawaz has somehow brought the judicial-military establishment onto his side, that he’s done some backroom deal, then nothing like it.
Vote for a popular, results-delivering, three-term Punjabi prime minister who knows how to work with or prevail over the system?
The N-League may as well start printing ballots now.
But then there’s that year-long timeline ahead. And that’s why we had the spectacle of twin celebrations this week.
The PTI may be a one-trick pony — go Nawaz, go — but it’s a trick that’s allowed it to fight the N-League to a draw.
The PTI today is essentially where the PTI was four years ago: second, behind the N-League. A distant second maybe, but still second and arguably within striking distance if the stars align and the N-League stumbles.
And both could still happen.
There’s a funny thing about the five-year parliamentary system we’ve settled on: it feels out of sync with our politics.
The last time round, the fifth year had a touch of superfluousness to it; of political capital spent, ideas expired and a desultory wait for the political executioner.
Four years is enough, five a bit too much.
Imran and the PTI will know that. Nawaz and the PML-N will fear it.
Not for nothing is politics the national sport.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, April 23rd, 2017
Comments (33) Closed
Yes four years are enough, fifth is definitely a curse. Time to ponder.
Nopes still won't give him a second look because I know that he's rotten to the core.
What a brilliant and lucid analysis!!
It's a curse, 200 textile mills have been closed 50000 jobless in just 1 year.
Not for nothing is politics the national sport. In fact, country is mired with certain substantial issues needs to be discussed i.e, poverty,intolerance and lawlessness. Media exclusively elaborating the issue of Panama leaks rather having time for core affairs of common people. However, no one can deny the importance of subject of corruption which plaguing the economy meanwhile electronic media should refrain from desultory talks on leaks.
as always beyond compare . I have come to love his style of writing very unique satire and analysis
Nice read, a very true picture of our political system, explained in very simple words.
A good read - enjoyed it.
Excellent analysis!
I don't think PML-N can be dislodged off the office even in 2018. The country needs PML-N for another term to ensure more economic and political stability. PTI is more of a moral crusaders than having any realization of the challenges the country is confronted with. I appreciate the ideological gradual shift of PML-N from a right wing Zia's legacy to a more center-left progressive, democratic party. My favorite political outfits are the ANP and PPP however they may not be able to come up with a majority in the next general elections. I would be glade if ANP and PML-N form a strong alliance so as to get the maximum impulse ahead if the 2018.
brilliant...
Great write up, as always.
PTI has a demonstrated track record in KPK about education, healthcare, environment, law enforcement and anti-corruption.
It is a "one-track" record and that "one-track" is called proper governance.
Spot on Cyril. Corruption or any illegal activity for that matter has never been an election issue for the voter. They vote for those who can hold their own in the vicissitudes of time. Unfortunately IK is more or less becoming a very speculative bet, not because anyone doubts his leadership, but because they doubt he can ever win, a compounding effect is the fact that he is a one man show surrounded by incompetent leeches.
Yes, I agree. Nawaz is a funny leader who emerges stronger after every conspiracy against him.
Why not six yrs then?
@JA-Australia. That "demonstrated" track record of PTI on law enforcement was not on demonstration when the police failed to save Mashal Khan from being lynched even though they were on the campus at the time.
PTI is not one-trick pony, it has also delivered in KPK much better than previous governments. If a party can bring reforms in KPK long-rotten system they are capable of bringing in the whole country. Just look on KP health and education department how better they are monitored. If PTI has the power to become the second largest party in the short span of time, it can also become the largest and most popular of the country.
@AM , Is there any dearth of leeches in other political parties including the one in power? And is'nt this aspect compounded by the fact that these parties are lead by corrupt & morally questionable leaders? Or merely the thought that one party continues to exploit the system to remain electable enough to let them govern & be voted for again & again?
Time to glance at the four years and definitely learn something from it , we love cricket but politics is a nasty game to have affection for
Amazing Cyril.
Keep whining...from abroad.
Pretty good analysis Cyril. Refreshing, clean, and professionally objective...
PML N for another term, before giving another term i would like to look at agriculture which has been devastated, agro based industry (textile) has taken nose dive. exports have been tumbled, foreign and domestic debt is rocketing sky high, Transperancy Intenational Adil Gilani has been appointed as envoy in Serbia now who would let us know regarding corruption index.
@iqtidar propably u didnt know that police was besy in saving another accused named Abdullah meanwhile Mashal was lynched in hostel.and the same police apprehended almost all the culprits.try to appreciate something too
So is there a solution to this madness? Someone will say education is the answer! yet these people who murdered Mashal were educated students! Nodbody can solve the problem as it stands.NO One!
full of praises for PML-N,
Beauty
@zeeshan , a nice day dream. PML N has got no majority in KP and ANP can have only few MNAs in the national Assembly. I am curious how ANP and PML N can change the situation in 2018 Election nationwide.
"Not for nothing is politics the national sport"
Nawaz sharif is the best among the leaders we have-- we have to make the best of what we have -- At least he leaves behind a legacy-- we wouldnt have the atomic blasts if it werent fore Nawaz Sharif, the orange lines , the CPEC , - The PANAMA LEAKS-- The Supreme Court Verdict-- the guy does create ripples
Quite a silly article..discussing the inane..the tragedy is the foolishness of the people who cant/dont have good choices because of their own fallibles. Does it really matter, nawaz or sharif when the country is burning, people blowing themselves up, administration killing its own and selling whats left to other powers ? And all you can think of is Nawaz or Imran ?
Well, the answer is yes! you would probably give him a second look only if you're as morally bankrupt as him. What performance are you talking about really? 12 hour load shedding? dismal performance on all his energy production promises? Come'on people are not that stupid. IK got exactly what he wanted! He has dragged Nawaz in the dirt and oh, Maryam isn't in the clear yet. She is yet to disprove her status of a beneficiary owner of the london flats. Good luck with that.