While we are often warned that past performance is not always a good indicator of future results, for the drama industry that is a gold standard. If a drama about two sisters tearing each other apart succeeds, we will see at least two or three similar stories in the next few seasons. It is as simple as that.

To borrow a term from economics 101, it is the ‘invisible hand’ of market forces at work. The push and pull of demand and supply that ultimately decides the fate of content. Unfortunately this is also why the market stagnates at times, relying on easier proven options rather than innovation.

Pakistani dramas have always been a marriage of two disparate souls: one completely commercial while the other is rooted in the great literary and artistic sensibilities of our culture. Just as in any marriage, the real dilemma is balancing the relationship between practical needs and the concerns of romantic ideals.

Will we ever be rid of the second-wife storyline? And what impact will the advent of Netflix have?

As in every creative field, there is always room for innovation, and 2016 saw plenty of it. Apart from a few serials such as Dayar-e-Dil, 2015 saw a serious downturn in quality as the entertainment industry pivoted towards the brave new world of bigger screens and the allure of movie stardom. However, this year saw a distinct rise in quality and investment in television productions. The year 2016 also saw a return to the small screen of actors such as Humayun Saeed, Mahira Khan, Hamza Ali Abbasi, Sanam Saeed and others despite their forays into movies. There were big budget serials such as Dillagi and Mann Mayal to match. This cross-pollination is likely to continue in 2017 as the nascent Pakistani film industry struggles to find its place.

Television is not only a safe commercial bet but still a good place to find that all-important jet fuel to star status and becoming a household name. Actors such as Feroz Khan, Sajal Ali, Mawra Hocane, Kubra Khan and Ainy Jaffri who have been, or will be, part of Pakistani feature films either already are or will be seen in TV productions in 2017.

Amongst the encouraging trends for 2017 are strong, empowered female roles. The positive reception to heroines in serials such as Udaari, Dillagi, Besharam and Preet Na Kariyo Koi have given rise to the hope that we will see more women-oriented plays on screen. However, the trend of women as victims weeping their way through 24 episodes before finding a saviour is unlikely to disappear soon if the success of mind-numbing dramas such as Bay Qasoor and Mann Mayal is anything to go by. Amongst the most discouraging story trends is the constant use of halala as a lurid plot twist and with the success of Zara Yaad Kar and Hatheli, we are almost guaranteed one or two more in this category in 2017.

One piece of good news is that the doosri biwi (even teesri and if need be chauthi) phenomena seems to have finally lost steam with only a few dramas picking up on it this season. Of the major trends in story inspirations, perhaps the most interesting shift has been a small but significant move away from the usual melodrama concentrating on the complicated love life of three individuals to more panoramic stories. Wide-ranging sagas such as Udaari and the fabulous Sang-e-Marmar allow for a wide range of well-etched characters who paint a picture of life on a broader canvas. Such serials harken back to the old days of PTV when content was king, adding much-needed depth and social commentary to an otherwise superficial line up that TV channels often show.

The year 2016 has proven that innovation can be commercially viable and socially responsible with the near flawless, super-hit serial Udaari. Sexual abuse and rape seem to be very much on the radar with new serials such as Muqabil and Baykhudi that touch on these subjects as 2016 winds down, and with more in the pipeline for the coming season.

“The mantra seems to be to pick anything controversial and run it,” one industry source stated, revealing that he has been presented with scripts on ‘controversial’ subjects such as sexual abuse by family members — statistically the most common perpetrators. Being socially responsible, he rejected the scripts because they were not ‘balanced.’

The success garnered by stories touching on difficult social issues has opened the door for more diverse and challenging stories. For example, the recent Khuda Mera Bhi Hai is about the life of a transgendered child and the family problems associated with it. The recent Nazo dealt with the issues faced while raising a mentally-challenged child. The flipside to this is that if a sensitive subject such as sexual assault is handled crudely (Sangat, Gul-e-Rana) it can end up as exploitative, misleading and even dangerous. The missing element between a responsible approach and one that is entirely commercial is directly related to the amount of research done by the writer and the quality control exercised by the production house.

The rising international profile of Pakistani dramas continues its upward gradient and has not been set back by the Indian channel Zee Zindagi’s ban on Pakistani content. Just as average Pakistanis continue to watch Bollywood productions despite the political manipulations of public sentiment, Indian fans of Pakistani dramas continue to enjoy the latest serials on YouTube and other popular social media platforms. Meanwhile Hum TV’s recent announcement that Pakistani dramas such as Humsafar, Zindagi Gulzar Hai and Sadqay Tumharey can be watched on Netflix has opened another gateway for the immense creative talent in Pakistan.

Pakistani dramas have always been a marriage of two disparate souls: one completely commercial while the other is rooted in the great literary and artistic sensibilities of our culture. The real dilemma is balancing practical needs and the concerns of romantic ideals.

It remains to be seen how long Zee Zindagi CEO Dr Subhash Chander will sit on the 60 crore rupees worth of content that he has stated has been blocked from release on his channel. With most of the serials shown on Pakistani channels already in the public domain, it is hard to see how that content will maintain its value down the long-winding road of international jingoism and sabre-rattling.

There are many questions hanging over the 2017 season. Will access to more sophisticated and international content via Netflix inspire and improve local productions or will there be a dumbing down to capture easier market share? Increased access through diverse platforms has only increased the popularity of drama serials as a medium in the West, but only time will tell how this plays out in eastern markets.

The corollary ban on Indian content in Pakistan has given a boost to local content, especially since Indian channels keep a strict control on the sharing of content via social media. On an interesting side-note, one unintended consequence of the Indo-Pak rivalry has been the boost it has given to Turkish dramas, whose popularity continues unabated. Shows such as Kosem Sultan and Kala Paisa Pyar are not just incredibly popular this side of the border but have found a home on Zee Zindagi, filling the empty slots left by Pakistani content.

Overall, 2017 looks exciting for Pakistani television with quality productions and strong content making a sharp comeback. The craze for game shows has lost some of its momentum and after a few seasons of high-profile controversies over blasphemy, Pakistani morning shows seem to be towing a more respectful, if not informative, line.

Sadaf Haider is a freelance writer and tweets at @Tomtomatoe

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, January 1st, 2017