THERE is growing evidence, gathered informally by journalists, that the impact of climate change on Pakistan goes far beyond the abnormal rain pattern we have seen in the monsoon season. The erratic nature of the rains, as well as temperature changes during the onset and end of winter also appear to be impacting the sowing season. When the rains fail, or come in thunderous showers that sweep away crops, the impact is visible. But the more subtle result shows up in the disruption of sowing patterns, evidence of which is piling up through numerous reports citing farmers as their source. The agriculture sector has been in a sustained slump for many years now, usually attributed to the collapse of commodity prices. But perhaps we should ask how much of the situation results from the disruptive impact of climate change. There is no way to be certain of this yet, but the piling up of anecdotal evidence merits a detailed study of sowing patterns and yields and their relationship to winter temperature changes.

There is now a clear case to be made for such a study. It would require close coordination among various government departments — the ministries of agriculture and climate change, the Met department and provincial revenue authorities. It would also require expertise that may not available locally to determine the extent of the impact and if it can be mitigated. The effects are felt widely, from lowered yields to elevated vulnerability to pest attacks. A detailed survey of agriculture yields, temperature anomalies, seasonal changes, water flows and availability during critical times, covering a period of at least 10 years, is now necessary. If an adverse impact is confirmed, then a second study is needed to develop mitigation strategies. Agriculture is the backbone of our economy. If it is being swept by a powerful adverse force such as climate change, then the government must determine what can be done to help. It’s high time the government made efforts to mitigate its impact.

Published in Dawn December 4th, 2016