IF ever the devil was in the detail, it was at the point when the finance minister announced, as he presented the Economic Survey yesterday, that Pakistan was back on the growth track. The economy grew by 4.7pc for the current fiscal, despite a steep fall in agricultural output totalling 0.5pc of GDP. The external sector “has become more stable” as reserves have risen and the current account deficit has shrunk. Inflation is falling, the rupee is stable and “has been able to gain economic fundamentals due to a very focused approach towards resolving structural issues such as energy and gas shortages”. Then we are told that large-scale manufacturing is going strong, which “suggests vibes from domestic commerce are highly positive”. This is the world the survey tries to paint.

Unfortunately, the vibes from the real world are not as rosy. Growth on the back of a boom in construction and automobile sales makes for a good future only for those who drive cars and live in cemented houses. The external sector can only “become more stable” if the build-up of reserves doesn’t owe itself mainly to “continued flows from IFIs; and a sharp decline in global oil prices”, but to a robust increase in exports and inflows of foreign investment. And ramping up the turbines in the power sector does not count as “structural reform”. Following up on the agenda to create autonomous boards for the distribution companies does count as such, as well as reforming the machinery to encourage documentation and broadening the tax base.

The government has managed to stabilise the economy. But it appears to be struggling to grow beyond this firefighting role. Where are the big ideas to spur growth in agriculture, or open up sustainable inflows of foreign exchange? Where are the big ideas on revenue generation and documentation, now that we have had our fill of withholding taxes and have seen banking transaction tax lead to little more than an increase in cash holding in the economy? There are undoubtedly many positives in this year’s economic story. The return of business confidence on the back of a stabilising security environment is one example. The pick-up in pace of CPEC projects is another. But these elements can play a supportive role, or provide the context for a revival of economic activity. They cannot be the story itself. Given that this is the last full fiscal year of the government’s term, it is imperative that they work to build a legacy that is more reliable, and certainly a lot more equitable, than cars and construction. Agriculture will take a lot more than price inducements to revive as well. The budget today will show how much new thinking there is, but it is safe to say nobody is holding their breath.

Published in Dawn, June 3rd, 2016