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THE Iran nuclear deal in Lausanne, Switzerland, as the week was drawing to a close saw an interesting divide on the issue on social media which reflected the views on the landmark development in the region and beyond.
The Iranians, given that their views mostly fell in the young moderate category, couldn’t contain their glee as they tweeted first to celebrate the deal and then discuss how the likely end to Iran’s isolation would serve as a setback to the hardliners who have dominated policy more or less since the 1979 revolution.
That a new day had dawned was apparent from the fact that the Iranians, whose hardline theological government since its inception has censored media and blocked all international broadcasts, were able to witness President Barack Obama’s reaction to the development beamed directly from the White House into their living rooms on state TV.
We won’t have to wait very long to know whether Pakistan, said to be beholden economically to the Saudis, has allowed itself any leeway to make independent policy decisions.
The absolute joy of the Iranians, whether at home or abroad, was clearly the common thread running through their tweets. In sharp contrast, one found Twitter handles representing even the usually moderately inclined Saudis, apart from many Israelis and Zionist supporters in the US, unleashing opprobrium on the US president for having invested so much energy, from their perspective, in a deal with the devil.
How the deal plays out in the Republican-controlled US Congress which is increasingly hostile to Obama is a matter for the coming months. What is clear already is that Iran and all of the other interlocutors in the P5+1 now believe that the lifting of the crippling economic sanctions against Tehran can happen within months.
Having a sanctions-free Iran as a neighbour will present opportunities as well as pose headaches for Pakistan and Islamabad will need to demonstrate it has policies in place and the (civil-military) consensus and political will to implement those.
An immediate headache will be the decision, to be debated in a joint session of parliament on Monday, on how to react to the Saudi pressure to participate in the military campaign against the Yemeni rebels who have deposed president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi and now control the key centres of Sana’a and Aden.
In 2013 alone, Saudi Arabia spent more than $62 billion on defence placing it fourth after the US, China and Russia in the highest global spenders in this head. In the current financial year, it is said to have edged past Russia with an estimated spend of $80bn.
It goes without saying it was ahead of world powers such as Germany, France and UK. So, given such massive spends, why does Saudi Arabia need Pakistan to join its so-called coalition to push for regime change in Yemen? Well, depending on whom you believe, the following answers are in the public domain.
It may have an enormous defence budget and the latest in fighter-bomber jets, tanks and whatever else the best in technology money can buy but its troops lack what it takes to participate in a ground eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation so its needs battle-hardened Pakistani soldiers to play a big role in any ground war.
Another speculation, fuelled by reports in the Western media, is that fearing a nuclear-armed regional rival Iran, the Saudis are seeking a Pakistani nuclear umbrella, even weapons. In 2013, an over-the-top BBC report, denied by Pakistan, seemed to suggest Islamabad had all but crated the nukes for dispatch to Riyadh.
The first explanation can be said to carry weight. The second is so bizarre that it is either 100pc true or utterly rubbish. I’d vote for the utterly rubbish. However, a third, more likely explanation is also there.
Feeling the heat of a Shia-dominated Iraq (no matter in how much turmoil) in its northeast, Iran in the east across the Gulf and now Houthi rebels, it believes supported by Tehran, in its south, the House of Saud wants to gather regional powers to return the compliment to Iran. If it can have Pakistan, Turkey and Afghanistan backing it then perhaps it can encircle Iran with its allies.
However, in this day and age what such encirclements amount to is anybody’s guess. Once the sanctions go the interest in Iran’s energy resources and trade prospects will trump any other concerns the world has. Any barriers will come down.
We won’t have to wait very long to know whether Pakistan, said to be beholden economically to the Saudis, has allowed itself any leeway to make independent policy decisions whatever these may be or if it will be forced headlong into a war on foreign soil, very definitely not of its own making, and join a regional grouping to the chagrin of a not so insignificant neighbour.
This day in 1979 a man elected to the office of the prime minister of Pakistan was hanged by a military dictator after a murder trial termed sham by legal experts of many hues including a member of the Supreme Court bench which in a 3-2 split voted to uphold his conviction by the Lahore High Court.
Z.A. Bhutto’s tenure, for all its shortcomings, marked a brief interlude of civilian supremacy in the country’s history of at least the past 60 years. That ended on July 5, 1977. As the recent constitutional amendment’s quick and smooth passage for setting up of military courts demonstrated even parliament is now aware of the limits on its authority.
The beginning of the return of those displaced from North Waziristan as the army has smashed the terrorists’ safe havens and the successful and bloody fight for the control of Tirah valley are the latest feathers in the military’s cap.
Does the country’s military and civil leadership (in that order, despite the usually communicative ISPR’s silence over the issue) have what it takes to chart a sane course through what must be some very testing waters? Your guess is as good as mine.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, April 4th, 2015
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