BAGHDAD: Iraqis are getting back to business in the face of uncertainty over what the US plans to do next. They ask every foreigner in town whether Iraq will be bombed soon, only to add that not much can happen that they have not already seen.

“We’ve been through a lot already,” says a woman. “We’re worried, but we can’t let worry lead our lives.”

Iraqis are trying to survive the best they can, and it seems to be working — at least in Baghdad. Everything is on offer in the popular Shorja market in the centre of the capital — rice, sugar, pasta, baby milk powder and even Pepsi. For a country facing embargoes, the market is bustling.

All kinds of goods are finding their way into Iraq, but prices are still too high for an average Iraqi. Where a civil servant’s monthly salary is about 10,000 Iraqi dinars ($5), a kilo of beans sells for about 400 dinars (20 cents) and a box of baby milk powder for 450 dinars (22 cents). Most of those tins of powdered milk are a part of government rations that people sell to make some money for shoes or clothes.

A new sanctions regime was introduced last month to ease the flow of civilian goods, and to restrict those that could be used for military purposes. The effect of the new sanctions is still not clear. For the moment, a slow trickle down effect is visible, with more and more goods on offer.

Baghdadis are the first beneficiaries.

The money is trickling down from hundreds of new businesses and contracts. These have brought in goods ranging from food to computers and steel. Foreign companies, mostly Arab, are opening offices in Baghdad and employing Iraqis. Restaurants are full, with businessmen leaving large tips. Rehabilitation and construction works are employing a growing number of labourers.

More and more of these contracts are independent of the oil for food programme administered by the US. Direct trade agreements are being signed between Iraq and its neighbours, including the Gulf states. This brings goods into Iraq unchecked at the border.

Abdel Razzak el Hashimi, advisor to President Saddam Hussein and leading member of the ruling Baath party, says that the US has tried to portray Iraq as a threat to the region, but the trade agreements are evidence of the opposite.

How much the Iraqis support Saddam Hussein is hard to tell. Public opinion is shaped mostly by state propaganda, freedom of the press is non-existent, and all opposition is smashed ruthlessly.

Najaf, in the Shia south of Iraq, is one of the places where a popular rebellion started in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War. There are expectations that when the US embarks on its adventure to topple Saddam, Shia in the south and Kurds in northern Iraq will rise against the regime again.

But Wamid Nathmi, professor of political science at Baghdad University says nothing is certain.

For the moment however, the Iraq issue has gone on the backburner for the US, though there is talk of toppling Saddam Hussein now and then. Iraq is taking advantage of the Middle East crisis not only to strengthen mostly business-related ties with its neighbours, but also to portray itself as the only Arab country that is supporting the Palestinians effectively.

Iraq is sending funds to the families of “martyrs” — now up from $10,000 to $25,000 dollars per family. This will ensure more support for Iraq from the Arab street once an American campaign is launched. Iraq is also beefing up military positions in the far south, and vacating many key buildings.

Iraq is, at the same time, attempting diplomatic reconciliation on other fronts. Talks on the return of United Nations arms inspectors to Iraq have been scheduled in Vienna early July, and Iraqis are hoping something positive will come of the meeting.

But just as the US is unlikely to accept the return of the inspectors on condition that sanctions be lifted, Saddam Hussein will not accept the US demand for unconditional return of the inspectors. The conditions look set to provoke a crisis.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.