KARACHI: A research paper published by international investment bank Goldman Sachs said Pakistan may well be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place, Dawn.com reported on Tuesday.

Written by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas and titled “The Path to 2075,” the paper projects that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, United States, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Goldman Sachs has been projecting long-term growth of countries for almost two decades. It has expanded these projections to cover 70 emerging and developed economies for the last 10 years.

The latest paper covers 104 countries with projections going as far as 2075.

The projection about Pakistan’s economic status is based on its population growth which, along with Egypt and Nigeria, can place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years.

By that time, the research projects Pakistan’s real GDP will have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,100. These numbers, however, are less than a third of the expected size of China, India and the United States. India’s real GDP in 2075 is projected to be $52.5tr and per capita GDP to be $31,300.

Among key risks to their projections, the economists highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism”.

Published in Dawn, December 8th, 2022