ISLAMABAD: A high turnout is expected in the by-elections in most of the 20 provincial assembly constituencies of Punjab on Sunday (today).
An unprecedented enthusiasm has been seen in the constituencies. Moreover, loyalty with political parties and leaders and past performance of the contesting parties seem to be the major factors responsible for determining the voting behaviour.
Generational divide within households regarding choice of parties appears to have disappeared in the last few days.
This is the crux of a survey conducted by Pattan on July 15 in 15 of the 20 constituencies.
Pattan said it used random sampling method to interview male and female voters.
The survey was conducted in 148 localities. In each constituency, 25 men and women were interviewed in person. Besides visual observation, discussions were held with well-informed persons.
The survey found 95pc respondents claiming they would cast their vote on Sunday.
For most respondents of the survey, good performance in the past and quality of leadership of the parties were the two major factors in determining the voter’s choice.
According to the survey, the biradari factor appeared to have lost significance at least for the time being. Similarly, importance of candidates also seemed to have declined.
As high as 82pc of the respondents said all registered voters of their families would vote for the same party.
Only 6pc respondents said there was split within their families regarding choice of candidates. This means the phenomenon of the generational split regarding choice of candidates has been weakened in recent days.
The survey, however, appeared to indicate though slightly that it was in fact the elders who had moved closer to the youth.
The survey also showed the phenomenon of vote buying. However, this should not be considered in isolation as it has always been part of a larger scheme of rigging.
For instance, more than 15pc respondents mentioned other favours/incentives too while only 6pc of the respondents said they were aware of vote-buying practice in their area.
As many as 80pc of those who said they knew vote buying practice named the PML-N while 7pc blamed the PTI and 10pc both the parties. The range of money paid against one vote varied from Rs5,000 to Rs1,000, they said.
About 6pc of the respondents reported that some form of intimidation or harassment was being practiced by local influential people in their areas.
A significant percentage (18pc) of respondents stated that the vote of someone of their family members had been shifted to other areas.
Regarding free and fair conduct of election, 47pc respondents were likely to say elections were to be free and fair, 25pc said no and 28pc refused to reply. Whether police and administration were neutral, 52pc said yes, 16pc said no and 32pc didn’t reply.
Though a small majority of the respondents were likely to be satisfied with the role of the administration and police, 25pc said they were not satisfied.
Published in Dawn, July 17th, 2022
