AS the government takes a number of crucial measures to encourage wheat cultivation — the 52 per cent increase in minimum indicative procurement price being the most important — concerns relating to water scarcity and unavailability of quality seed stocks have reportedly forced officials to cut the next crop's production target of 25 million tons by half a million tons and possibly even 600,000 tons. Even this estimate may be on the low side. Some farmers insist that actual production could fall short of the target by at least one million tons of grain just on account of the acute water shortage for the upcoming

rabi season. Then there is the paucity of quality seeds. Yet it is still possible for the government to help growers increase their output by ensuring the availability of fertilisers such as DAP and urea during the sowing season at controlled rates. Also, the government will have to ensure that growers get a predictable supply of power so they can run their tube wells to water their crops. These two measures can to a large extent make up for the loss in production being feared by the country's agriculture and food authorities.

That said, even an output of 24 million tons will be no small achievement after two years of food shortages that saw people across the country queue up for hours for a kilogram or two of flour last winter and the price of a

roti shooting up to Rs9 in parts of the NWFP recently. The persisting wheat and flour shortage in most parts of the country except Punjab, and that despite the import of sufficient grain to meet domestic requirements, goes to prove that the government has miserably failed to check hoarding and smuggling by profiteers who thrive on public misery, as highlighted by the Senate committee on interior affairs. The problem of hoarding and smuggling is not going to go away on its own without the government regulating grain movement in the private sector from the farm to the miller and also the onward supply of flour to the consumer. That can best be done by enacting a warehousing law that binds wheat traders to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan and report each purchase and sale to the regulator on a daily basis. Unless that is done chances are that the hoarders will continue to manipulate the market while the poor consumers suffer despite a bumper crop next year.