WITH some Planning Commission members entering the fray over viability of Dr Samar Mubarakmand’s underground coal gasification project, its future has never looked so bleak but for the PM’s intervention.

A member of the Commission, Shahid Sattar, dealing with energy, had declared the underground coal gasification (UCG) project a failure.

He told a local daily that the project was “never feasible” and “now funds are being blocked.” The release of more funds for 10MW project, he said, could result in more financial loss to the government. Federal minister for power Naveed Qamar had also been quoted as saying that the UCG project was “not economically feasible.”

In case the UCG project was dropped, the entire Thar coal project may need to be re-examined. The huge deposits discovered in 1991 remain unutilised till today while billions of rupees have been spent on it under various heads.

In a meeting with the Planning Commission in July, 2009, Dr Mubarakmand, the nuclear scientist, had pledged to generate 10MW as a pilot project by end-2009. That deadline was later shifted to end-June 2010, and then to end-2011 for generating 100 MW.

Dr R Farid A. Malik, a former chairman, Pakistan Science Foundation, says that the UCG approach has been over-projected in Pakistan and instead of a small pilot project it has been converted into a national energy project which it was not meant to be.

“Thar will develop the day,” he says, “we start digging for bulk samples which are needed for any meaningful development.” Not even a ton of coal has been extracted so far while billions have been allocated or committed on side issues. It is the commercial viability which is of essence in pursuing the UCG technology because it is very expensive.

One may note that there are no operating UCG facilities in the US at present, and no major company has committed itself to UCG research because of high cost. However universities in China, India, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United Kingdom are engaged in developing UCG technology.

The new development was the audit of the UCG project carried out by Gen. (retd) Shahid Niaz, a member of the Commission, whose report denies the existence of flame in any well in Block-5 where Dr Mubarakmand is currently doing experiment of gasifying the coal. The gas burnt for only four hours, the report said, and then extinguished. But the scientist claims success of the experiment, saying in December the coal was burnt at about 250 feet underground and gas was successfully found. “The coal gas remained burning for almost four months and if still someone couldn’t see it, then it was not my fault.”

When the audit team went there on May 8, he says, the gas flame was not there because “we have ourselves decided to close down the well for the underground coal was burning for nothing and there were no signs that the government would give the required amount to complete the project.” The government has not released Rs900 million allocated to the project for the current year, he claims. According to Planning Commission members, the scientist has already spent Rs1 billion and was seeking another ten billion rupees to complete his project. Dr Mohammad Shabbir, managing director, Thar UCG project, says that test production of 10 MW would decide the fate of the project.

Dr A.Q. Khan, the eminent nuclear scientist, had, in one of his recent articles titled “Projects we cannot handle”, shown reservations about the UCG project, saying “I can say with authority that we do not have experienced and qualified engineers to handle such a complicated, giant project, to say nothing of my having had to cope with those who indulge in self-projection though they don’t have fundamental knowledge or qualifications in the required field.”

Whether it is the Thar coal project or the Reko Diq project, he said, the country needs young, experienced, highly committed engineers with the proper educational background. Besides, the present government, or any that may follow, will never be able to provide enough funds to keep such projects going. The projects, he says, will drag on and the poor people will see gold, copper and electricity only in their dreams.

It is interesting to note that the Thar coal project has been reduced to gasification activity only and there is little or no talk of having a coal-fired power station. Syed Mohibullah Shah, a retired civil servant, had negotiated and concluded agreements for Pakistan’s first major coal-fired power plant in Keti Bandar in 1996 during the Benazir government. Within a record time of 18 months, he says, all stages were completed and the foundation stone laid. However, “the self-destructive politics of the country took its toll on the project.”

But he wonders why this PPP government is still nowhere near delivering on even one powerhouse of 1,000 MW coal-fired power. As big allocations without audit for the UCG project are being made there has been “a deafening silence on the part of both the federal and provincial governments.” A clear direction needs to be settled for feasible development of Thar coal. Moving in different directions without technical diligence and financial affordability is never done in any good investment regime in the world.

Coal-fired power plants are still the principal source of electricity in the world and currently they fuel 41 per cent of global electricity and are expected to reach 44 per cent by 2030. This is despite the fact that leading financial institutions around the world have long discontinued the financing of coal-fired power plants.

In some countries, coal generates a higher percentage of electricity. For instance, in South Africa and Poland 93 per cent and 92 per cent electricity, respectively, is generated from coal. In China, Australia and India, it is 79 per cent, 77 per cent and 69 per cent. Improvements continue to be made in conventional power station design and new combustion technologies are being developed. These allow more electricity to be produced from less coal. Efficiency gains in electricity generation from coal-fired power stations will play a crucial role in reducing CO2 emissions at a global level.

In 1981, Pakistan produced 1.6 million tons of coal. Over the past 25 years our coal production has gone up and we currently produce around 4.3 million tons a year, or a meagre 0.6 per cent of world output.

Note: Prime Minister Gilani agreed to allocate Rs900 million for the project at a meeting of the National Economic Council late last week.