AMONGST the key potential triggers for fresh conflict in South Asia is water. The Indian state is behaving in an increasingly irresponsible manner in this regard, constantly testing Pakistan’s patience. The latest provocation has come in the form of a statement given by the Indian water minister, who was reported as saying that “not a single drop of water” will flow to Pakistan, and that his country was “actively working” to achieve this sinister aim, as per the directives of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While it is true that current Indian infrastructure may not have the capacity to block water, statements such as these are not mere rhetoric. New Delhi is actively pursuing projects that will affect Pakistan’s water rights. The Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel Project, which will divert significant volumes of water, is a major example of India taking practical steps to deliver on its stated aims of choking Pakistan’s water. The Foreign Office has noted that deliberate attempts to block Pakistan’s water could amount to acts of war, adding that this country would “vigorously” defend its water rights.

The transboundary water-sharing regime that survived for over six decades between both countries in the shape of the Indus Waters Treaty was scuttled by India last year after the Pahalgam episode. New Delhi had been seeking to re-negotiate the treaty for some time, and India used the Pahalgam episode to withdraw from its commitments regarding shared waters. Pakistan has a legal and moral right as the lower riparian to defend its share of transboundary waters, while the IWT cannot be held in abeyance unilaterally. Instead of upholding an internationally recognised treaty, India is trying to wiggle out of its commitments, while at the same time intending to inflict maximum harm on Pakistan by blocking its share of water. If New Delhi continues on the current trajectory, renewed conflict in the subcontinent is a strong possibility as Pakistan cannot surrender its water rights. The more advisable path would require India to return to the table and discuss water and all other outstanding issues as a responsible state. But that does not seem likely in the near future, considering the combative rhetoric coming from New Delhi. As things stand, Pakistan must defend its water rights at all forums, and prevent India from delivering on its threats.

Published in Dawn, June 12th, 2026