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ISLAMABAD: The ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) stands to gain most and four parties to lose all in the forthcoming Senate elections, reveal calculations done by Dawn on the basis of party positions in the national and provincial legislatures.
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Awami National Party, ruling the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, also are set to gain significantly but the representation of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in the new Senate is expected to remain unchanged.
Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), which is considered to be the most organised religio-political party in the country, will be the only mainstream party which will lose complete representation in both the houses of the parliament — the National Assembly and the Senate — because it had boycotted the 2008 general election.
The calculations show that if all members vote strictly for candidates of their parties and no seat adjustments are made, the PPP will become the single largest party in the upper house for the first time in the country’s parliamentary history.
The PPP is expected to improve its strength from existing 27 to 42 senators. Only five of its 27 senators will retire in March, whereas the party is set to win 20 of the 54 seats for which elections will be held, thanks to its majority in Sindh Assembly and better position in the Punjab and Balochistan assemblies.
At present, the PML-N has seven senators and only Ishaq Dar will be retiring in March. However, due to its majority in the Punjab Assembly, it is expected to win another seven seats and its total membership in the upper house will become 13.
The PML-Q will be the biggest loser in the elections as 20 of its 21 senators will be retiring in March. Party president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain will be the sole representative of the party in the upper house.
But the PML-Q is expected to get a maximum of seven seats in the next elections — thus PML-Q’s strength is expected to be reduced to just eight from the existing 21.
The ANP is expected to improve its position in the Senate. At present it has six senators and only Ilyas Ahmed Bilour is about to retire in March. However, the party is expected to secure five seats in the next elections and thus its representation is expected to increase to 10.
The Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman is also set to lose its position in the upper house. Of its 10 senators, seven are retiring in March and given the party position in the provincial assemblies, it is expected to get a maximum of four seats. Therefore, the JUI-F’s strength will be reduced to seven.
Besides the JI, the other parties which are expected to lose complete representation in the Senate are Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awami Party (PkMAP), Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) and PPP-Sherpao.
The present Senate comprises 100 members but after the next elections its strength will become 104 because under the 18th Constitution Amendment, the provincial assemblies will send one minority member each to the upper house.
According to Article 59 of the constitution, the Senate comprises 104 members — 23 each from the four federating units, eight from Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), and four from Islamabad.
The 23 seats allocated to a province comprise 14 general seats, four reserved for women, four for technocrats and one for minority member.
The term of a senator is six years, but 50 per cent of the total members retire after every three years and elections are held for new senators. Elections to fill the seats allocated to each province are held in accordance with the “system of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote”.
The Fata senators are elected by the members of the National Assembly from the area whereas the four senators on the reserved seats from Islamabad are elected by the members of the National Assembly.
Therefore, the Senate elections always depend on the party positions in the four provincial assemblies and the National Assembly.
The new senators are required to take oath on March 12.
The following table depicts the complete picture of the possible scenario of the next Senate elections:
