TWO high-profile visits to Pakistan over the weekend appear to have produced little forward movement in key relationships. The bonhomie with Afghan President Hamid Karzai that has been increasingly on display since last December continued over his latest visit. But scratch below the surface and the same old hurdles remain. While Pakistan and President Karzai appear to have warmed to one another over the possibility of reconciliation talks with the Afghan Taliban, the ambivalence of American officials to such overtures continues. Perhaps President Obama's speech on the future course in Afghanistan expected in the next couple of weeks will help clarify where exactly Americans stand on pushing ahead with the military-led counter-insurgency strategy versus more urgent negotiations with the Taliban. But until that clarity comes from the American side — or rather there is a clear and concerted switch from the present military-led Afghan strategy — what exactly the Karzai-Pakistan combine can achieve will remain mired in uncertainty.

The key 'confidence-building measures' that could be held out to the Taliban are well-known: allowing the Taliban to open a political office in a third country; revisiting the UN 1267 blacklist to lift sanctions on some individuals; the release of some Taliban prisoners; and, perhaps most difficult of all, curbing the night raids, which Americans officials consider to be a highly effective counter-insurgency tool. Moving forward on any of those issues, or indeed the broader issue of exploring the outlines of a possible settlement with the Afghan Taliban, would require the approval of American officials — something which is missing so far.

The other visit, by CIA chief Leon Panetta, who will take over as US defence secretary at the start of next month, was not even able to produce the semblance of better relations. Having met army chief Gen Kayani and ISI boss Shuja Pasha over dinner, the private discussions with Mr Panetta are believed to have produced no breakthrough. The message sent out from the Pakistani side: we want to rework the rules of engagement in a more fair manner and will not relent until that is achieved. The message from the American side: Pakistan has made several promises, most recently to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her visit to Islamabad, but there has been little by way of implementation. With Mr Panetta soon to be leading the Pentagon and Gen Petraeus considered no friend of Pakistan because of his focus on military solutions and Afghan Taliban sanctuaries along the Pak-Afghan border, it appears both sides are preparing for rough days ahead.