LIKE myriad starbursts exploding in a night sky, violent armed clashes and humanitarian crises are erupting across the map of central Sudan as the country prepares to divide into two separate states early next month. But beyond the confusion and screams of pain, the gritty wider context is a fierce, two-sided competition for resources, territory, international diplomatic support and, most especially, oil, that is intensifying by the day.

To the name of Darfur, a watchword for bloodshed and misery, may now potentially be added the less familiar names of South Kordofan, the Nuba mountains, Abyei, and Blue Nile. All these areas are to some extent disputed between Khartoum and Juba and, like south Sudan itself, face debilitating internal divisions. The nightmare now is that these numerous flashpoints could somehow fuse together to spark a third Sudanese civil war.

As usual, the northern government of President Omar al-Bashir is blamed for the deteriorating security situation by western governments and media.

Last month's occupation of the Abyei border region by the Sudanese army, in which about 100 people reportedly died and up to 45,000 were sent fleeing, brought a sharp but familiar weekend rebuke from the UN security council.

Condemning what it called a “serious violation” of previous agreements, the council demanded that “Sudanese armed forces ensure an immediate halt to all looting, burning and illegal resettlement” and warned (rather hollowly in view of its ongoing failure to prosecute Bashir for alleged genocide in Darfur) that those breaking international law “will be held accountable”. Washington Post

The US-based Enough Project went further, saying it had seen satellite evidence suggesting northern troops had committed war crimes in Abyei, and had submitted it to the International Criminal Court. John Prendergast, co-founder of Enough, said governments had a duty to invoke the “responsibility to protect” doctrine applied elsewhere in Africa this year. “Sudan's north-south and Darfur conflicts have produced more dead, wounded and displaced persons than Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Ivory Coast combined,” Prendergast wrote in the . “How long is the international community willing to tolerate this deadly dictator? [a reference to Bashir] ... We must proceed before Abyei ignites the next Darfur.”

Khartoum has proposed a rotating administration in Abyei, with a joint committee taking control before independence day on July 9. It has also suggested a demilitarised zone along the length of the common border.

Those in the West prophesying another civil war or a Darfur-style repeat genocide misunderstand what is happening — which is not a countdown to war but a negotiation. Abyei and similar disputes had become bargaining chips, said International Crisis Group analyst Zach Vertin in a recent briefing.

- The Guardian, London