BAGHDAD Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki, once seen as a vulnerable leader, has emerged from Iraq`s provincial elections as a dominant political force no longer at the mercy of his allies, analysts said on Friday.

The 59-year-old took the reins of power just under three years ago, when the country`s ruling Shia alliance choose him as a compromise candidate after Sunni and Kurd politicians prompted the incumbent Ibrahim Jaafari`s ouster.

The triumph of Maliki`s allies in last weekend`s polls bolsters his position ahead of general elections scheduled for the end of this year or in early 2010.

“He is in a much stronger position than before, as he gained the majority of votes, and he is the person who will determine the formation of the next alliance,” Tariq Al Maamuri, a noted Iraqi political scientist told AFP.

“A deal will not be imposed upon him by any person,” Maamuri said, referring to the factional alliances that have become a hallmark of Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein from power in 2003.

Although Maliki himself did not contest the provincial elections, he backed candidates standing for the State of Law Coalition, who took the largest share of votes in Baghdad and eight of Iraq`s nine Shia-dominated provinces.

Maliki campaigned relentlessly for the coalition and was its public face during the election race, making speeches across the country every day in the lead-up to the vote.

“Maliki`s rise is spectacular,” said Reidar Visser, an analyst and editor of the Iraq-focused website www.historiae.org, noting that previously he had been forced to rely for support on the country`s largest Shia party, which is now much weakened.

“The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq has been decimated across the country,” Visser said. “Maliki`s coalition won Basra and Baghdad and came first in every Shia-dominated governorate.”

Although the coalition scored highly in the polls it did not gain an absolute majority and will still have to strike deals with opponents over how money is spent on much-needed reconstruction and development.The provincial elections will change very little at national government level, but the coalition`s success will send shockwaves through Maliki`s opponents ahead of the general election, according to Joost Hiltermann, a Middle East analyst with the International Crisis Group.“It is a significant boost,” he said.

“Maliki can now build on this as we head into the parliamentary election season. We can anticipate more of his winning formula; appearing to take a tough stand against the Kurds, the Sadrists, the Awakening Councils and anyone else that the ordinary Arab citizen does not like, and using state funds to establish groups that will bring out the vote for him.”

The success of Maliki`s allies followed a year in which the prime minister struck a tough nationalist pose in a deal with Washington that will see US troops leave the country by the end of 2011.

Maliki`s standing has grown in the past 12 months as he has presented a secular national agenda in response to the sectarianism that brought Iraq to the brink of civil war in 2007.

He also ordered Iraqi forces in 2008 to take on Shia militiamen in hotspots such as Basra, Maysan and Diyala provinces as well as in Baghdad`s Shia slum of Sadr City, eventually routing the rebels.

However, one US-based analyst warned that Iraq remains a fragile state and cautioned the premier, who was due to hold talks with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon later on Friday, against complacency.

Ban arrived in Baghdad on a surprise visit on Friday “to reiterate the UN`s commitment to the country,” UN spokesman Said Arikat told AFP.