ISLAMABAD, May 27: Pakistan's trade deficit for the next fiscal year 2004-05 is projected to increase by almost 76 per cent to $1.332 billion from the current year's provisional estimate of $755 million , mainly because of higher growth in imports.
"It is expected that the year 2004-05 may experience a deterioration in trade balance due to a high growth of imports than growth of exports," suggest official estimates approved by the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) last weekend and available with Dawn.
Exports (FOB) are projected to grow by eight per cent from $12.158 billion in 2003-04 (revised and provisional) to $13.130 billion. Likewise, imports (FOB) are forecast to increase by 12 per cent from $12.913 billion during 2003-04 to $14.462 billion in 2004-05.
The projections of exports and imports are based on a sustained increase in agricultural production and manufacturing sector, lower prices of POL products, diversification of export and industrial base for import substitution and improvement in the overall competitiveness of the external sector.
"The trade account is projected to be in a deficit to $1.332 billion in 2004- 05 against a deficit of $755 million in 2003-04.
IMPORTS: The major drain of foreign exchange will be on imports of petroleum products as oil import bill is projected to touch $3.321 billion - its highest ever mark - and up by more than 20.5 per cent against $2.754 billion (provisional) of the current year despite an expected reduction in prices.
The crude oil imports in volume will increase form current year's 57 million barrels to 73 million barrels next year, up by 28 per cent. Of this, about 28 per cent increase is expected in crude oil imports that will alone cross $2.1 billion as compared to $1.6 billion during the current year.
The crude oil import is on the steady increase and during the current year it has increased by 16 per cent from last year's $1.4 billion. The import of POL products is expected to increase at the rate of 9.9 per cent to $1.24 billion against $1.13 billion estimated for the current year.
During the current year, POL imports are projected to drop by more than 33 per cent from last year's $1.7 billion - mainly because of drop in furnace oil imports owing to higher hydel power generation.
Similarly, fertilizer imports are expected to increase by 9.8 per cent to $235 million against $214 million in the current fiscal. The fertilizer imports during the current year have also reduced by 10.8 per cent when compared with $240 million of last year.
The import of edible oils is expected to maintain a 9.95 per cent growth rate and reach $707 million against $643 million estimated for the current year. Of this, palm oil import will increase by 9.9 per cent to 1,385 tons at a cost of $654 million against 1,290 tons costing $595 million during the current year.
EXPORTS: Of the total expected exports of $13.130 billion next year, the cotton-based manufactures will fetch major chunk of $7.976 billion imports, up by 7.6 per cent from $7.410 billion estimated for the current year.
Of this, yarn exports will increase by 6.8 per cent to $1.185 billion from current year's $1.110 billion, while cloth exports will increase by 5.8 per cent to $1.650 from current year's $1.560 billion.
For the first time readymade garments will join the billion dollar export family as its exports are projected to rise by 13.9 per cent to $1.105 billion from $970 million during 2003-04.
Similarly, hosiery exports will increase by six per cent to $1.5 billion in 2004-05 from $1.4 billion in 2003-04, while other madeups like towel and bedwear exports will go up by 7.5 per cent to $2.45 billion from current year's $2.28 billion.
The exports of primary commodities will increase by 13.5 per cent to $734 million in 2004-05 from $647 million in 2003-04. Of this, cotton exports will increase by more than 80 per cent to $85 million from current year's $47 million.
Rice exports will increase by more than eight per cent to $649 million next year from current year's $600 million. Of this, basmati exports will increase by 5.75 per cent to $423 million next year from current year's $400 million.
The exports of other traditional items like fish, leather, carpets and synthetic textiles are expected to increase by about nine per cent to $1.335 billion from current year's $1.225 billion.
Dear visitor, the comments section is undergoing an overhaul and will return soon.