ISLAMABAD, Aug 7: Though it seems a close call on paper, the numbers game in parliament could be chilling for a besieged President Pervez Musharraf and his opponents forming the present coalition government sound sure they will have more than the required votes to impeach him possibly this month to terminate nearly nine years of his rule.

The coalition needs at least two-thirds, or 295, votes of the 440-strong total membership of the National Assembly and the Senate in a joint sitting for the success of the first such move in Pakistan’s history agreed to on Thursday by the leaders of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and their allies, including some sitting on opposition benches.

The anti-Musharraf parties, which also include the Jamaat-i-Islami and some Balochistan-based nationalist parties sitting on opposition benches, have a total of 274 members — 235 in the 340-seat National Assembly and 39 in the 100-seat Senate —which is far short of the required numbers.

But they could be sure of support from the majority of a total of 27 independents with chances of anti-Musharraf vote by several dissidents from parties of the previously ruling but the present opposition alliance led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) with a total membership of 139 — 87 in the National Assembly and 52 in the Senate.

The coalition formally claimed on Thursday of assured support of 16 of the 20 National Assembly and Senate members from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), two of whom sat with PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif when the two leaders announced the impeachment move at a news conference along with representatives from smaller coalition partners Awami National Party (ANP) and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI). And one party official said impeachment resolution could be passed by up to 312 votes.

“We are very confident of a clear win on numbers game,” Information and Broadcasting Minister Sherry Rehman told Dawn. “We have not come this far without doing our parliamentary homework.”

Law and Parliamentary Ministry adviser Izhar Amrohvi said the coalition had the support of 305 members, including more independents and possibly defectors from the opposition benches, and that the number could go “up to 310 or 312”, though he declined to name any names.

Former women development minister Neelofar Bakhtiar formed an anti-Musharraf six-member “like-minded group” of PML-Q senators in February shortly after the Feb 18 elections lost by their party and another party activist in the National Assembly, Kashmala Tariq, announced a similar group in the lower house recently, braving a de-seating threat from party chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain that was not carried out.

Formerly pro-PML-Q independent Senator Gulzar Ahmed Khan from the North West Frontier Province, whose two sons are also independent senators, was seen sitting on the treasury benches on Thursday when the upper house held an inconclusive opposition-sought debate on the internal security situation in the country. That meant the coalition gaining three votes that were cast for President Musharraf in his controversial election by a parliamentary electoral college last October.

While the PML-Q and PML-F of Pir Pagara have repeatedly assured support for the president, the role of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has 25 members in the National Assembly and six in the Senate, will be keenly watched, though the ruling coalition says its claimed numbers does not take the Karachi-based party into account.

The MQM has been a stout defender of the president and is the second largest opposition party in both houses of parliament. But political observers wonder whether the party, which has been under fire from most anti-Musharraf parties for its alleged role in years of Karachi violence, can risk its place in the PPP-led coalition government in Sindh province by voting for a president unsure of winning what could be his last political battle.

An MQM shift would surely break the back of the pro-Musharraf camp.

There are also speculations about the role of PPP vice-chairman Amin Fahim, who appears sidelined by Mr Zardari and who has publicly opposed the wisdom of opting for such move now. But party sources said they would not expect Mr Fahim or some sidelined members like senators Safdar Abbasi and Enver Baig to violate the party directive.

While the president had largely been isolated after the Feb elections won by his opponents, the coalition parties seemed sure there would be no non-political intervention in support of the former army chief when they decided to give him an opportunity to ponder over his position rather than surprise him.

The move also reflected the coalition’s confidence that without such support from his former military constituency, the president could not use his constitutional powers under article 58(2)b to dissolve the National Assembly and sack Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.

Their decision to ask the four provincial assemblies to pass resolutions demanding that the president take a vote of confidence from parliament as he committed to the Supreme Court before his October election, appeared aimed at giving him enough time to make an exit by resigning instead of facing more denunciations and less praise in impeachment proceedings in a largely hostile parliament.

Since it is happening for the first time in 61 years of Pakistan’s life, it appears unclear if an anti-defection article (63A) of the constitution providing for the de-seating of a member voting against the party directive will apply to those voting for the impeachment resolution against the president.

But Mr Amrohvi thinks the article will apply to the impeachment resolution, which he said must be passed by a voice vote like any other resolution or, if challenged, by head count or lastly by a division.

The article could apply to a member on resigning from one’s party, voting or abstaining contrary to the parliamentary party directive in the election of a prime minister or a vote of confidence or no-confidence, or a vote on a money bill.

It is uncertain how long the impeachment proceedings will last after a notice for the move is given by at least half of the total membership of either house of parliament to be followed by the summoning of a joint sitting by the National Assembly speaker “not earlier than seven days and not later than fourteen days after the receipt of the notice”.

“The joint sitting may investigate or cause to be investigated the ground or the charge upon which the notice is founded,” the relevant clause of the constitution’s article 47 says. “The president shall have the right to appear and be represented during the investigation (of the charges), if any, and before the joint sitting.”

Another clause says: “If, after consideration of the result of the investigation, if any, a resolution is passed at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership of Majlis-i-Shoora (Parliament) declaring that the president is unfit to hold the office due to incapacity or is guilty of violating the constitution or of gross misconduct, the president shall cease to hold office immediately on the passing of the resolution.”

The present National Assembly has 340 members, as two of its seats are vacant. But the Senate has its full strength of 100.