TIMERGARA, Dec 26: There are 32 candidates contesting the election to be held on Jan 8 for one national assembly and four provincial assembly seats in the Dir Lower district.

After the Jamaat-i-Islami’s (JI) withdrawal from the competition, a neck and neck fight is expected between the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Awami National Party (ANP) for the National Assembly seat in the district where seven candidates, including two independents, are contesting.

According to a Dawn survey, the total population of Dir Lower is 845,760. The total registered voters are 371,903, out of which 226,526 are males and 145,377 females.

The Election Commission has set up 259 polling stations, 249 of which are combined and five each have been designated separately for male and female voters.

The commission has declared 50 polling stations as most sensitive, 86 sensitive and 143 normal in the district, sources say. It has asked police in a letter to make necessary arrangements for balloting.

There are four ‘most sensitive’ polling stations in Khall, 13 in Lal Qilla, five in Samar Bagh, eight in Munda, five in Timergara, one in Balambat and 14 in Ouch.

Sixteen polling stations in Timergara, 15 in Balambat, 15 in Samar Bagh, nine in Lal

Qilla, 14 in Khall and 17 in Ouch have been described as sensitive.

The total number of polling booths is 780, of which 260 have been specified for women.

For NA-34, there are seven contestants, including ANP’s Mohammad Ayub, PPP’s Malik Azmat, JUI-F’s Qazi Fazalullah, PPP-S’s Mohammad Ishaq, PML-Q’s Javid Iqbal and independent candidates Shamsul Qamar and Dr Bahramand. The real fight is expected to be between the PPP and ANP, analysts say.

For PF-94 (Dir I) PPP’s Mehmood Zeb, ANP’s Azam Khan, JUI’s Qazi Fazalullah, PPP-S’s Arshad Khan, PML-Q’s Javid Akhtar advocate, PML-N’s Ali Nawaz and JI dissident Mufti Kifayatullah (independent) are in the race.

Political pundits are predicting that the seat may go either to the PPP or ANP.

For PF-95 (Dir II) five contestants are in the run, including ANP’s Haji Hidayatullah, PPP’s Rahmatullah, JUI’s Mujibur Rahman, PML-N’s Shah Nawab and independent candidate Shamsul Qamar.

The ANP is expected to win the seat easily since its arch rival JI is not in the race. Independent Shamsul Qamar, however, may affect the ANP’s vote bank.

This is the native constituency of former JI senior provincial minister Sirajul Haq, who is also the provincial chief of the party, but he has withdrawn his nomination papers.

For PF-96 (Dir III) there are eight contestants, including ANP’s Naeem Jan, PPP’s Mohammad Zamin who recently resigned from the ANP, JUI’s Dildad Khan, PML-Q’s Shaukat Ali, PPP-S’s Sayed Ahmad Shah and three independent candidates Bahramand, Habibullah and Mohammad Israr.

Analysts say the main contest is between the ANP and PPP.

For PF-97 (Dir IV) JUI’s Maulana Gul Nasib Khan, PPP’s Dr Zakirullah who recently resigned from the JI, PPP-S’s Mohammad Ishaq, ANP’s Hussain Shah Yousafzai and PML-Q’s Ikram Ghani are contestants. Analysts say that a tough fight is likely between Dr Zakirullah and Mr Ishaq, however they add that in case of a PPP vote split, JUI’s Maulana Gul Nasib may have the chance to win.

In the 2002 election, all seats in Dir Lower had gone to the JI candidates. But after the withdrawal of Jamaat from the polls, the field is open for the PPP and ANP.

Even though the PML-Q, JUI-F and PML-N have also fielded strong candidates, yet their chances of success are minimal.

At the moment no political party seems eager to form an electoral alliance. During

2002 polls, the PPP, ANP,

PML-Q had formed an alliance against the MMA, but the alliance of the religious parties still emerged victories and Maulana Ahmad Ghafoor, Muzafar Said, Sirajul Haq, Saeed Gul and Dr Zakirullah won from NA-34, PF-94, PF-95, PF-96 and PF-97 constituencies respectively.

Those who had changed their political loyalties at that time included JI’s Dr Zakirullah, Mohammad Zamin and his brother Zahir Shah of the ANP who joined the PPP while Haji Hidayatullah of the JI joined the ANP.

Rifts in the ANP in two constituencies, PF-95 and PF-96, will affect the party’s vote bank and its rival PPP may get its advantage, analysts say.

Jamaat workers have launched an anti-election campaign in the district. District Amir Maulana Ahmad Ghafoor told Dawn that committees had been formed to go door to door to urge people to boycott the election.

However, candidates and workers of all other political parties have initiated their own meetings and public gatherings for canvassing.

They are highlighting salient features of their party manifestoes through banners, posters and stickers.

With the passage of time the election campaign is gaining momentum in the district. Different party workers and local leaders were visiting various areas of the district.

Meanwhile, candidates contesting for NA-34 and PF-97 in the district have accused a caretaker provincial minister of interfering in the election process.

They claimed that he was using government machinery to run the poll campaign for his brother in two constituencies.

Mohammad Ayub Khan, ANP candidate for NA-34, told Dawn that interference of the caretaker provincial minister and tehsil nazim Mohammad Umar was “very visible” in PF-97, where they had been allegedly running the campaign of the PPP-S candidate.

He added that the

ANP had brought the matter into notice of the Election Commission.

Other candidates including, PPP’s Malik Azmat Khan, JUI-F’s Qazi Fazalullah and PML-Q’s Javed Akhtar also urged the authorities to take notice of the situation.