• Delay could push global price tag from $36bn to $73bn; De Croo urges IMF, wealthy nations to back crisis-hit economies
• China reportedly rules out hosting 2028 COP33 climate summit
ANTALYA: Act now against the devastating effects of El Nino or pay double later, the head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warned on Friday as delegates debated how to finance climate action at the COP31 talks in Turkey.
“The needs to hedge the impact of El Nino are $36 billion if you do it now,” the agency’s chief, Alexander De Croo, said in an interview in the Turkish resort of Antalya. “If you don’t do it, the cost will be $73bn. So the cost would be two times as high.”
El Nino heats Pacific Ocean waters every two to seven years, disrupting global wind patterns and rainfall. This exceptionally strong cycle has already battered economies worldwide.
“Not acting is the most expensive climate policy that you could have,” De Croo warned, urging major players such as the International Monetary Fund to help vulnerable developing nations mitigate the damage.
Developing countries want more financial support from wealthier nations historically responsible for global warming, though De Croo acknowledged rich governments face heavy debt burdens and war costs.
Still, he argued vulnerable nations have had no time to recover from compounding crises: the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, “and now El Nino, and now the cost of financing”.
A UN report this week noted African Development Bank estimates of $10bn to $20bn in regional damage, while the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean projected cumulative GDP losses of at least 2pc over three years, pushing 4.8 million people into poverty.
While De Croo pressed for immediate adaptation investments and policy reforms to lower capital costs across 47 partner nations, questions over long-term global climate leadership also surfaced on the sidelines of the Antalya summit.
Separately, China has decided against hosting the UN’s annual climate talks in 2028 after considering the possibility in recent months, sources familiar with the issue said Friday on condition of anonymity at COP31.
Beijing’s decision leaves the door open for another Asia-Pacific nation to organise COP33, as it is the region’s turn to host. India withdrew its offer in April without specifying a reason, while South Korea has previously expressed interest.
Asked about the decision, first reported by The Guardian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said he was unaware of the situation, adding that China remains committed to “promoting the global green and low-carbon transition”.
Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2026
