LAHORE: Demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical conflict and global shipping turmoil, Pakistan’s premium Basmati rice exports have absorbed the shock waves of the US-Iran conflict and broader Gulf region disruptions, keeping the country firmly on track in its continuous push to secure the number three spot in global rice trade.
Despite surging ocean freight rates, skyrocketing marine insurance premiums and logistical bottlenecks, global demand for aromatic Basmati sustained the disruption shock. Total worldwide trade of Basmati rice held firm at 6.9 million tonnes – matching 2025 levels – as buyers in key markets prioritised securing Pakistan and India’s signature premium grain over non-aromatic varieties.
In a landmark performance during September 2026, Pakistan outperformed Vietnam, traditionally the world’s third-largest rice exporter. Official trade figures from Vietnam’s foreign trade agency confirm that Pakistan shipped 420,000 tonnes of rice during the month, comfortably outstripping Vietnam’s total of 337,000 tonnes.
Pakistan also established a clear lead in value realisation. Its exporters fetched an average unit price of $621 per tonne in September 2026, compared to Vietnam’s $563 per tonne. The price premium highlights strong international demand for Pakistan’s mixed export basket of high-value aromatic Basmati and non-basmati varieties, competing directly with Southeast Asian competitors like Thailand and Vietnam, which export ‘Hom Mali’ and non-basmati rice.
Basmati exports absorb shock waves of the US-Iran conflict, sea route disruptions
Hamid Malik, a rice industry expert, notes that market dynamics have been shifting since December 2025, when Pakistan surpassed Vietnam’s monthly export volume for the first time this millennium.
The sector’s strong showing comes after a turbulent 2025, during which free-market exporters, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, suffered substantial volume losses due to adverse climatic and market conditions while India maintained its dominant position.
Unlike state-supported regimes, the rice supply chain in Pakistan operates purely on free-market principles with no minimum support price (MSP) for paddy purchase, state-funded marine insurance or freight subsidies. Private millers and exporters acquire paddy at prevailing market rates in a competitive environment.
The start of 2026 brought heightened uncertainty, which materialised into a full-blown crisis following the outbreak of war in the Gulf. Inland transport costs, processing expenses, delayed shipments, and deferred payment cycles created immense financial strain on global traders, causing baseline exports from Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan to drop by 20 to 30pc in general non-aromatic categories.
Mr Malik says Pakistan’s rice sector opened the 2026-27 financial year on a strong footing, bolstered by substantial carry-over stocks and an 18 to 20pc expansion in rice plantation acreage. Driven by readily available urea fertiliser, accessible agricultural credit, and targeted institutional support from the banking sector, total rice export volumes surged by 51pc during the first quarter (July-September 2026), generating a 37pc increase in foreign exchange earnings despite ongoing disruptions in the Gulf and Black Sea shipping routes, he adds.
Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2026
