THE world is passing through one of the most volatile periods in modern history. It is more unstable today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The international system is fragmenting with rising big-power tensions. The old order with whatever rules it had is gone.
Power shifts continue to reshape the international landscape, marking the advent of a multipolar era. The disregard for international law and norms by big and regional powers has left countries having to navigate a rule-less terrain at a time of great uncertainty. Hard power has made a comeback. Powerful countries and regional powers are using military force or other coercive instruments to try to bend other states to their will. The threat or the use of force has become an option of first and not last resort, and the means to prevail over others. These actions defy international law and global norms but continue with impunity. Diplomacy only happens after missiles have been fired.
Conflicts proliferate across the world — two major wars, between the US-Israel and Iran and between Ukraine and Russia as well as Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and military actions against its neighbours. There are a record number of conflicts today. A study by a Swedish university has counted the highest number of conflicts between states in 2025 since World War II. There are 65 active conflicts according to its data for last year. The risk of a global conflagration is also heightening. Can this push the world to the brink of a third world war? A new book seeks to answer this frequently raised question. War is Interested in You: The Breakdown of International Order and the Threat of World War Three by distinguished British columnist Gideon Rachman is an insightful book on a subject that is especially relevant today. He borrows the book’s title from Trotsky: “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you” — meaning war will come whether anyone wants it or is thinking about it. Rachman identifies three fundamental reasons for the surge in conflicts and breakdown of international order. The first is the shifting global balance of power which is challenging US dominance. The second is the rise of what he calls ‘strongmen leaders’ who regard war as a necessary and legitimate tool to achieve their ends. The third is a consequence of the first two; as these trends take hold international rules and law are breaking down. “A law-governed world is giving way to a might-makes-right world,” he writes.
In explaining these causal factors, Rachman argues that the relative decline of the Western alliance and America’s retrenchment from its global role created an “opening” for “revisionist” powers dissatisfied with the present world order to take more risks. He cites Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s more aggressive posture on Taiwan as cases in point. Trump’s use of military force against Iran, in defiance of international law and ignoring the views of its allies, has further contributed to the collapse of global order.
Can distinct regional conflicts merge to push the world to the brink of a third world war?
Greater international insecurity also stems from the emergence of a new generation of self-styled strongman leaders — Putin, Trump, Netanyahu — who deride the idea of a rules-based international order. Their acceptance of territorial annexation and belief in ‘might-makes-right’ has heightened the risk of international conflict. Rachman suggests that both Trump and Putin subscribe to the “spheres of influence” theory, which they see as a more reliable guarantor of peace and stability than a rules-based order. The starkest expression of this, he asserts, is Trump’s revival of the Monroe doctrine for the Western Hemisphere.
In what Rachman characterises as a “might is right” world, growing global insecurity is driving up defence spending. Global rules and international institutions are being upended by strongman leaders, increasing the risk of more wars. While acts of war are the most dramatic examples of the breakdown of the rules-based order, Rachman argues that international institutions are crumbling in other ways too. Trump’s trade war and protectionist policies are, for example, accelerating this erosion.
Rachman examines today’s major wars and argues that while they have been distinct regional conflicts, they intersect at various points. But as these separate conflicts escalate, they risk eventually merging. His concept of an ‘axis of adversaries’ of the West or ‘axis of upheaval’ challenging the US-led world order greatly exaggerates the degree of cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran whose interests are hardly identical. They may all want an end to US hegemony but that doesn’t make them partners in an alliance acting in unison. The argument does not stand up to scrutiny. Rachman is unable to convincingly establish the “practical and ideological” links he posits between them. In fact, he himself acknowledges the limits of the Russian-Chinese partnership and strains among the four countries.
To the question of whether a conflict-ridden world is heading towards a global conflagration, Rachman’s answer is carefully qualified. A world war, he argues, would have two defining characteristics. One, the world’s major powers would have to be in direct conflict as they were in the First and Second World Wars. Two, the conflict would have to span continents. These conditions do not obtain today but they cannot be ruled out in the future.He sees a direct conflict between the US and China as the greatest risk.
Rachman devotes a chapter to last year’s conflict between India and Pakistan. It adds little to what has already been written about the military confrontation between the two nuclear neighbours. He sees the four-day conflict in May 2025 as a serious setback to India’s ambitions and efforts to de-hyphenate from Pakistan. Among the lessons he draws from this episode is that “the risks of a very dangerous conflict in South Asia get too little attention compared to other global trouble spots”. He argues that the risk of future conflicts is heightened by the fact that both countries deployed increasingly sophisticated weapons during the crisis.
This is an intelligent book well worth reading for its sharp perspectives on war and peace even if one might disagree with some of the author’s assertions.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2026
