President Donald Trump may be facing a political pounding at the US midterm elections next month — but in Europe expectations are low that a big Democrat win would change much.

From the battlefields of Ukraine to the boardrooms of Europe, Trump has sent multiple shockwaves across the continent since returning to power last year.

During a head-spinning 22 months, the mercurial leader has turned spectacularly on Kyiv, imposed tariffs on allies and threatened to take Greenland.

Ahead of the November 3 polls, it looks like American voters could punish Trump’s Republican party and hand control of one or both of the US House of Representatives or Senate to the Democrats.

But while the hope may be that Trump could be reined in by a hostile Congress, multiple officials at the EU and NATO told AFP they doubt a big loss would muzzle him on the international stage.

“We don’t think the unpredictability is going to change,” said one senior EU diplomat.

Publicly the European Union is keeping its cards close to its chest.

“We will not comment on any elections in the EU or abroad. Let’s wait for those and we’ll see where it goes,” said European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho.

Behind closed doors as well, officials say that the midterms are not featuring much in the bloc’s internal discussions.

“I suspect because a) it is difficult to really predict the result, b) one wouldn’t want to get too high hopes for change and c) not sure how much even a Democratic wave would impact foreign policy issues,” said a second senior EU diplomat.

Ukraine, tariffs

Ahead of the midterms, Trump has rattled Europe by yet again lashing out at Ukraine and cosying up to Russia as Washington has renewed its push to end the fighting.

While a Democrat win could usher in a more vocal pro-Kyiv majority in Congress, the EU is not expecting US support for Ukraine to ramp up again. Officials in Brussels say they are focused on plugging a 70-billion-euro hole in Kyiv’s finances next year.

And while they’re pushing other countries like Britain, Canada and Japan to do more, they are certainly not counting on the United States. Meanwhile, there is equally little optimism for any major reversal on the tariffs Trump has slapped on Europe.

Diplomats and officials point out that it took months to get Democrat President Joe Biden to roll back tariffs on EU steel after Trump’s first term — and even then limitations remained.

In a recent poll from the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations, only one quarter of Americans backed removing all the tariffs on the EU.

US forces in Europe?

At NATO the story is much the same. European allies are nervously waiting for the results of a Pentagon review of US forces on the continent that looks set to be unveiled in December.

The widespread expectation is that it will see the United States scale back its deployments, although the hope is the cuts will not be too severe.

Multiple diplomats at NATO said they didn’t envision the midterms having an impact on the review.

While a changed Congress could see US lawmakers more outspoken in support of the alliance, the direction of travel is already set with Europe stepping up efforts to take more responsibility for its defence.

“Whatever the outcome, we’ll keep going,” said one European diplomat.

Trump unleashed?

There is also a nagging fear that things could get worse after the midterms. If Republicans cling on, it could embolden Trump, meanwhile, if they lose, he could seek to distract from his woes at home by stirring up things abroad,

“We have a history in America of presidents who get in trouble domestically turning more to the international stage,” said Bruce Stokes, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank. From an escalation in the Iran war to a more concerted push on Ukraine, there are numerous ways the White House can keep worrying Europe.

“Trump has demonstrated they can’t stand not to be the centre of attention,” said Stokes.“If that means he needs to do more on the world stage, positively or negatively, that may be what ends up happening”.