LAHORE: Pakistan faces a potential three-million-tonne wheat shortfall that could force the government to spend roughly $1.2 billion in foreign exchange on imports unless urgent policy interventions are implemented before the upcoming Rabi season.

Speaking at a press conference, Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI) President Khalid Mahmood Khokhar issued this warning to the top federal and provincial policymakers.

He said that domestic wheat production has been severely undermined by ineffective policies over the past three years, resulting in a staggering Rs2,200bn loss for local farmers. The crisis has been compounded by recent global events, including the Gulf conflict that began on Feb 28, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia-Ukraine war, all of which have driven up diesel prices, tube-well electricity tariffs, and international shipping lead times.

To prevent a massive drain on foreign reserves and secure national food security, the PKI president urged the government to immediately restore the wheat support price mechanism to Rs4,702 per 40 kg.

Warns $1.2bn import bill looms amid shortfall of 3m tonnes

According to PKI estimates, farmers currently incur a net cost of Rs3,761 to produce one maund of wheat, making the suggested Rs4,702 figure — which includes a standard 25pc profit margin — essential to incentivise farmers to bring fallow land back into cultivation and to target a 31-million-tonne yield.

The organisation stressed that the prime minister and the minister for National Food Security must officially announce the procurement policy and price restoration by the end of this month to give growers adequate planning time.

Also, PKI urged the government to ensure that any prospective fertiliser subsidies are nutrient-based and apply to all phosphatic fertilisers rather than being restricted to DAP alone.

Pointing to the ECC’s March 2022 decision that included all phosphatic grades, the PKI noted that nearly 80pc of farmers rely on alternative high-value fertilisers like Nitrophos, TSP, SSP, MAP, NP/NPS, and NPKs to improve crop yields.

Limiting relief strictly to DAP would spark black-market speculation and force unnecessary foreign exchange spending on DAP imports when local supplies of alternative phosphatic fertilisers are already sufficient to meet the nation’s requirements for the 2026-27 crop cycle.

Published in Dawn, August 25th, 2026