US Democrats are awaiting results from their marquee primary in Michigan on Wednesday morning, with the contest between a left-wing insurgent and an establishment-backed congresswoman becoming a proxy war over Israel, electability, and the future of the national party.

Hours after polls closed, leftist Abdul El-Sayed held a narrow lead over centrist Haley Stevens, with the race too close to call.

With 95 per cent of votes counted, NBC was the only major US media outlet to call the race as of 6:50am (3:50pm PKT), projecting a win for El-Sayed.

The winner will face former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in November for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters, a race central to the party’s difficult effort to win control of the Senate.

Democrats must defend Michigan while gaining four Republican-held seats to control the upper chamber, making the primary more than an ideological exercise in a state that has swung between the two parties in recent national elections.

Analysts say the results will show whether a current leftist surge among Democrats can move beyond safe seats and win in battlegrounds with national consequences — or whether Michigan’s Democratic establishment can still hold the line.

El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director backed by leftist leaders Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has cast himself as a working-class fighter willing to confront corporations, party leaders and increasingly unpopular pro-Israel donors.

Stevens, a four-term lawmaker from the Detroit suburbs, has built her campaign around experience, manufacturing and electability. She is supported by establishment figures from Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

‘Off the hook’

Several recent polls have shown El-Sayed ahead, raising the prospect of the left’s biggest victory yet in a primary season marked by a series of anti-establishment wins.

His allies say the campaign’s volunteer energy proves progressives can build a statewide coalition without relying on Washington’s traditional donor network.

Stevens is counting on support that she says may be under-represented in opinion polls — from Black voters, older Democrats and people without college degrees.

“We’re still getting a ton of votes. We’re firing people up,” she told reporters after casting her ballot in Birmingham, a half-hour drive northwest of Detroit.

“My phone’s been ringing off the hook with people who are excited to go to the polls, to see a campaign like mine go forward for November.” The bitterest divide has been over the United States’ deep support for Israel.

Stevens has defended continued military backing for the country and rejected accusations that Israel committed genocide in Gaza.

El-Sayed has called for an end to unconditional US aid, attacked the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) lobby group, and said Israel should not exist specifically as a Jewish state.

‘Brutality’

AIPAC spending and outside advertising totaling $90 million — in a state with a large Arab-American population and deep anger over the Gaza conflict — has made Michigan another national test of the pro-Israel lobby’s ability to shape Democratic primaries.

The candidates have traded increasingly personal attacks, with El-Sayed calling Stevens “the least capable candidate in America”, while she has accused him of blaming his problems on Jewish Americans.

Congresswoman Debbie Dingell, who has remained neutral, warned that the “brutality” and “ugliness” of the campaign could make it harder for Democrats to unite afterwards.

Michigan voted narrowly for President Donald Trump in 2024, even as Democrat Elissa Slotkin edged Rogers in that year’s Senate race, underscoring both the state’s competitiveness and the risks of a divided party.

“The Democratic establishment threw everything it had at Abdul El-Sayed. If he wins, the reverberations will be felt far outside of Michigan,” Dan Pfeiffer, a senior aide in Barack Obama’s White House turned political analyst and podcast host, posted on X.

“This would be the second time this cycle that a Schumer-backed candidate was rejected by the voters, which will raise even more questions about whether he and his operation have lost touch with the Democratic base.”