LAHORE: The Chenab River is on course for a major surge in water levels, with officials warning of a possible high-flood situation in the coming days as heavy rains continue across its catchment areas in India-held Kashmir and parts of Punjab.

“At the moment, the Chenab River is flowing in medium flood, and its flows may surge and enter into the high-flood category following the prediction of heavy rains during the next three to four days both in held Kashmir and Punjab,” a senior official of the Punjab Irrigation Department told Dawn.

Separately, the Flood Forecasting Division of the Pakistan Meteoro­logical Department forecast high flood levels in major rivers and nullahs through July 24 because of heavy rainfall.

According to the division’s flood bulletin, flows in all major rivers are expected to increase significantly by July 24 due to a prevailing westerly wave coupled with a strong monsoon incursion from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal over the catchment areas of the country’s major rivers.

“A high flood level is expected in the Chenab River at Marala, the Jhe­l­um River at upstream Mangla and associated nullahs of the Jhelum, Che­nab (Dora, Dotta, Dowara, Bhimber, Halsi, Aik and Palkhu) and Ravi (Bein, Bassanter, Deg and Sakki),” the report war­ned. “High flows are also expected in the Kabul River and its associated tributaries.”

The report also warned of possible flash flooding in the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan; streams in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan; and urban flooding in Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Khushab, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Lahore, Okara, Sahiwal, Bahawalnagar and Faisalabad.

Detailing water flows at various gauging stations, the bulletin observed the Indus River is flowing at a low and below-low level at various stations, including Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri.

The Jhelum River is flowing in low- to medium-flood at Mangla and Rasul, followed by the Chenab, flowing in medium- to high-flood at Marala, Khanki and Qadirabad. The Ravi and Sutlej rivers are flowing at a below-low flood level.

Meanwhile, the daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority stated that the inflows and outflows at the Indus River at Tarbela were recorded at 232,500 cusecs and 210,000 cusecs, respectively.

The inflows and outflows in the Jhelum at Mangla were recorded at 57,400 cusecs and 10,000 cusecs, respectively. Similarly, the inflows and outflows at the Chenab at Marala were gauged at 130,500 cusecs and 108,200 cusecs, respectively.

“The situation may turn critical if there are heavy rains as predicted in the catchment areas in held Kashmir and Punjab,” the irrigation official warned.

Published in Dawn, July 21st, 2026