HAVING endured one of its worst floods last year — triggered by intense monsoons and compounded by sudden water releases into the Chenab and Ravi from across the border — Punjab is preparing for ‘high floods’ this year, even though the situation has been normal so far. The decision signifies that flood management is being shaped by caution rather than data and certainty. The caution stems from a critical information gap created by India’s continued withholding of upstream river-flow data following its unilateral and illegal suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. In such circumstances, where early warning systems are deprived of vital upstream data, preparing for the worst is a prudent course of action. Flood forecasting is essential for saving lives and limiting damage. Accurate and timely information gives the authorities enough time to evacuate vulnerable communities, strengthen embankments, manage reservoirs and protect critical infrastructure. When upstream river-flow data is unavailable, officials have to rely on estimates and alternative sources, making flood forecasts less accurate and reducing the time available to respond. As climate change brings more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such uncertainty only increases the risks for communities living along the country’s rivers. That any country would put tens of thousands of lives at risk in pursuit of political leverage is deeply regrettable.

That said, we must also realise our own flood management shortcomings. The devastating floods of recent years have exposed persistent weaknesses in early warning systems, coordination among government agencies, land-use planning and the unchecked encroachment of the floodplains. Despite repeated promises of reform, these gaps remain. It is therefore encouraging to see the provincial authorities adopting a more proactive approach this year by preparing for a worst-case scenario and taking precautionary measures to reduce the risks faced by vulnerable communities. Preparing for the worst is a sensible response to uncertainty. But emergency planning cannot become a substitute for building a stronger, more resilient flood management system. As climate change makes extreme weather more frequent and severe, Pakistan must invest in stronger flood defences and modern forecasting systems to better protect lives and livelihoods. At the same time, it should continue to expose the humanitarian consequences of the Indian government’s decision to withhold vital upstream river-flow data that has created great risks for millions of people living downstream.

Published in Dawn, July 20th, 2026